Friday, February 29, 2008

Down the Stretch They Come...

With their win last night over Michigan State, Wisconsin pretty much assured themselves of at least a share of the Big Ten title.  Oh sure, they could lose one of their two remaining games, but I give that a zero percent chance of happening.  For PTI fans, that's the big squadoosh.  They host terrible Penn State (5-10 conference, 13-14 overall) and then close out on the road against even more terrible Northwestern (1-14 conference, 8-18 overall).

It's a tougher road for Purdue.  They host Northwestern, then travel to Ohio State (8-7 conference, 17-11 overall) and Michigan (5-11 conference, 9-19 overall).  They should win out, but the road game at Ohio State looms as their potential stumbling point.

Indiana has the toughest remaining schedule.  They must travel to Michigan State (10-5 conference, 22-6 overall), host Minnesota (7-8 conference, 17-10 overall), and travel to Penn State.  Clearly the Michigan State game is the test.  The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 7 games... all losses coming on the road.  The only terrible loss was to Penn State.  The others were Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin... the top of the Big Ten.  They've not lost a conference game at the Breslin Center this season.

Here are the Big Ten Standings:

Big Ten Conference Overall
School W-L PF PA W-L PF PA STRK
Wisconsin 14-2 1037 887 24-4 1903 1536 W5
Indiana 13-2 1076 971 24-4 2139 1785 W4
Purdue 13-2 1017 916 22-6 1915 1703 W1
Michigan State 10-5 984 913 22-6 2007 1733 L1
Ohio State 8-7 974 896 17-11 1887 1692 L3
Minnesota 7-8 1002 1012 17-10 1916 1725 L1
Penn State 5-10 922 1052 13-14 1778 1801 W1
Iowa 5-11 883 963 12-17 1633 1682 L2
Michigan 5-11 991 1066 9-19 1798 1925 L1
Illinois 3-12 940 955 11-17 1811 1734 L3
Northwestern 1-14 887 1082 8-18 1645 1783 W1

Big Ten Tempo-Free Stats Updated

We've updated the Big Ten conference stats post through yesterday's games.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Shot Selection

The day this blog posts a statistical analysis as brilliant and beautiful as this effort by Ken Pomeroy on shot selection is the day you should repent because assuredly the end will be nigh.  While I think we put forth some good analysis and stats, I'm often awed by sublime doctrine advanced by both KenPom and John Gasaway.  We are but mere disciples.

And to think, we have been among those pundits decrying the death of the mid-range game.  Alas!

Free Throws and Three Fours

Now that I've had a day for the Ohio State - Indiana game to percolate (HD box), let's talk about it a little. This was a win the Hoosiers had to have to stay in the conference championship race. (Wisconsin has the clear edge there, given their schedule the rest of the way, but that's not the point right now). And the Hoosiers got that win.  It wasn't pretty, but they got it.  Really, though, we couldn't have expected it to be pretty, given the way the Buckeyes play. 

Much has been said in this space about the Ohio State D (OK, so I said it all, but that doesn't change the fact that it's been said), and their numbers are quite good.  Some of that bore itself out on Tuesday, too. The Hoosiers put up worse efficiency numbers on O than is typical for them, and they shot atrociously from beyond the arc.  Ohio State does have the best statistical D in the conference, and they are best at defending both 2- and 3-pointers. I was already to think it was just tough OSU D, and maybe it was, but PostmanE's take made me think a little more about it. He suggested it was just a bad shooting night, and if you look at the numbers it was horrific for Stemler and Gordon. Those two were a combined 1 - 14 on 3's, meaning the rest of the team was a not-great-but-certainly-acceptable 4 - 11. It seemed to me that both of those guys had mostly open looks on their three-balls, but they just couldn't get them to fall. But, the Hoosiers did shoot right on their conference number for two point FG%. So that's a case of the irresistible force of IU's 2-point offense overcoming the immovable object of OSU's 2-point defense. Still, the three point shooting of Stemler and Gordon really hurt the team on O. In fact, Gordon had one of his worst offensive games as a Hoosier this year, posting an ORating of only 80.1 while using an impressive 32% of the team's possessions. Notice I didn't say "of the team's possessions while he was on the floor." That's because, despite his poor shooting and his turnovers, Gordon never sat down. I know that sounds like a criticism of Dakich, but it's not really.  It's just an observation. Clearly, Dakich thought he was making the team better by being out there, and he does play some very good D (he managed 3 steals and 3 defensive boards, both of which are good). And Gordon is an absolute weapon down the stretch. You know he's going to get to the line and hit his FT's, which he did once again against the Buckeyes.

But I don't think all of those missed shots were the key. Granted, if a good percentage of them go in, then IU doesn't have to sweat the outcome of the game at all.  And if you look at the fact that IU went to the live 24 times against the Buckeyes, who are best in the conference at keeping people off the line, then that is clearly a key to the win.  In conference games, OSU's defensive FT Rate is a paltry 16.0. In this game, it was 39.3. Indiana's irresistible force beat OSU's immovable object there.

The other factor isn't so obvious. I was talking with Lawton yesterday and starting to claim that the +/- stat of HD box scores is only useful for guys who sit for a significant amount of time.  I was thinking you might need to sit for 10 minutes to make the number useful. In the case of Gordon, who played the whole game, we have no idea how the team would do without him on the floor.  And really, how much time does it take to make a noticeable impact? It can't be just a few minutes. However, just as I was saying that, I noticed Kosta Koufos's line in the HD box. His +/- was +9. While he was on the floor, Ohio State scored 9 more points than Indiana. That means that the Hoosiers outscore the Buckeyes by 12 when Koufos was on the bench. So Koufos must have sat a lot, right?  Wrong. He was out of the game for only 4:44.

So there you have it, getting to the line and hitting the freebies. 4:44 of bench time for Koufos.  Those were the keys to IU's win over Ohio State. Just like the title of this post says.

Now IU fans need to root for Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan against Purdue and Michigan St., Penn St., and Northwestern against Wisconsin to give the Hoosiers a chance at the Big Ten conference championship and #1 seed in the conference tournament.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Ohio State vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-26-08

Ohio State vs Indiana
2/26/08 7:02 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Ohio State Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Butler, Jamar 40:00 - 3 12/69 3- 4 2- 8 0- 0 12/62 8/50 0/68 2/69 0/36 0/34 3/39 2 1.00
Koufos, Kosta 35:16 + 9 21/64 6-15 2- 3 3- 3 18/56 0/38 2/61 3/60 4/31 4/30 2/34 3 1.08
Turner, Evan 32:52 - 2 13/58 4- 5 1- 4 2- 3 9/52 4/43 2/56 5/56 0/29 1/28 6/32 4 1.25
Lighty, David 32:08 - 7 6/51 1- 2 1- 3 1- 2 5/45 3/40 1/51 1/52 1/27 1/24 3/30 1 1.01
Hunter, Othello 26:06 + 2 12/51 6- 9 0- 0 0- 0 9/41 0/32 0/45 1/45 1/20 2/20 4/25 4 1.33
Diebler, Jon 14:58 + 3 3/29 0- 0 1- 6 0- 0 6/27 0/21 0/29 3/30 1/16 1/16 2/16 3 0.50
Terwilliger, Matt 13:13 - 5 2/18 1- 2 0- 1 0- 0 3/19 0/16 0/21 0/23 1/14 0/12 1/12 1 0.67
Lauderdale, Dallas 5:20 -10 0/ 5 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 8 0/ 8 0/ 9 1/10 0/ 7 1/ 6 0/ 7 0 --
Hill, P.J. 0:02 - 2 0/ 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 69 21-37 7-25 6- 8 62 15/28 5/70 16/71 8/36 12/34 22/39 18 1.05
.568 .280 .750 .536 .071 .225 .222 .353 .564

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Gordon, Eric 40:00 + 3 17/72 3- 8 1- 8 8- 9 16/61 3/45 3/69 7/68 0/37 3/39 3/34 1 0.84
Bassett, Armon 36:20 0 23/66 3- 3 4- 8 5- 5 11/56 2/45 2/63 2/62 0/33 1/36 3/30 0 1.72
White, D.J. 36:00 + 2 16/63 7-13 0- 0 2- 4 13/57 0/44 1/62 0/59 2/34 4/36 4/31 3 1.07
Ellis, Jamarcus 25:00 + 4 5/48 2- 4 0- 1 1- 2 5/38 1/33 1/44 1/45 0/21 4/25 3/23 1 0.84
Stemler, Lance 22:41 + 7 2/39 1- 1 0- 6 0- 0 7/39 1/32 0/36 0/37 0/24 2/24 4/19 2 0.29
Crawford, Jordan 21:07 + 3 9/44 3- 4 0- 2 3- 4 6/32 2/26 1/38 1/36 0/22 1/22 1/17 1 1.14
Taber, Kyle 11:18 - 5 0/13 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/12 0/11 0/20 0/19 0/ 7 1/ 8 3/11 0 0.00
Thomas, DeAndre 7:31 + 1 0/15 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/10 1/ 8 0/13 2/14 0/ 7 0/ 5 1/ 5 2 0.00
TOTALS 40:00 72 19-36 5-25 19-24 61 10/24 8/71 13/70 2/37 17/39 22/34 10 0.99
.528 .200 .792 .417 .113 .186 .054 .436 .647

Efficiency: Ohio State 0.972, Indiana 1.029
eFG%: Ohio State 50.8, Indiana 43.4
Substitutions: Ohio State 31, Indiana 19

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Ohio State 6-6, Indiana 5-5
Layups/Tips: Ohio State 8-11, Indiana 11-21
Jumpers: Ohio State 7-20, Indiana 4-10


The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Then and Now

Then

The Hoosiers got a win on the road at Northwestern Saturday night. I haven't written much about it, because I'm not completely sure what to say. I suppose a quick look at the numbers is in order, if for no other reason than to say that, even more than the second Wisconsin game, the two teams' defenses just didn't bother about this game. A look at kenpom's Indiana game stats numbers (sorted by defensive efficiency) shows that it was the worst defensive game Indiana has played all year. However, it was also Northwestern's second worst. On offense, nearly all of Indiana players were stellar. Bassett was excellent, while taking on a go-to guy share of possessions (26%). Jordan Crawford was sublime. Seriously, look at his +/-. I'll wait. DJ White was his normal self despite playing with the flu. Eric Gordon was his normal self, and Kyle Taber had another do no evil game on that end. I'm not going to talk about who played poorly on offense, and I'm not going to talk about anyone's bad +/- numbers, because I don't care. Given the situation with Coach cum Verizon Guy Sampson, I told the Girl that the Hoosiers were likely to go up there and lose. That they managed to pull out a victory, regardless of anything else, was excellent for the team. And for that, Indiana fans should be happy.

Random side note, I was confused a couple of times in the second half about whether IU was running a man or a zone. I even started to holler about why we were going back to the man when it wasn't working (not that the zone really was). Turns out that Dakich had decided to junk it up by running a triangle-and-two. I didn't recognize it at all, and I need to go back to look at it. Dakich claims that defense was key to getting back in the game when IU was down 7 or 9 in the second half.

Now

Tonight the Hoosiers host a dangerous, if struggling, Ohio State team. I did a preview based on whole season stats before the game in Columbus, and I think we can still apply most of that. Last time around, the Hoosiers pulled out a victory by forcing Ohio State to keep the ball outside the arc with an active 2-3 zone, leading the Buckeyes to jack up 27 3's, hitting only 7 of them. More than half of the Buckeye field goal attempts came from beyond the arc, and it just didn't work for them. It's unsurprising that it didn't work, too, since we pointed out in our preview that Ohio State is best at hitting 2's and worst at not so good at hitting 3's. FWIW, Indiana's excellent free throw defense came through for them again, as OSU hit only half of their eight freebies.

On the other end, Indiana managed to get 4 more shots than the buckeyes by turning it over on only 125 of thier possessions. That, and they overcame a stout Buckeye D in hitting more than half of their 2-pointers. Also, they hit every one of the few free throws the Buckeyes gave up.

But that was last time, and I'm supposed to be talking about now. Nevertheless, I think Indiana's defensive game plan last time was sound, given that Ohio State is first in the conference in 2-point FG% and next to last in 3-point FG% (only Michigan is worse). If Indiana can force contested 3's with an active zone again, they could win. However, I have this odd feeling that the program's turmoil almost has to cause a "friction loss" at some point, and it will be interesting to see if the Hoosiers can focus and take care of business at home tonight. On offense, Indiana might as well stick with its strengths and try to make 2's, because OSU has the best defense in the conference, and they are #1 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% D. That may not happen, though, because OSU's opponents attempt 42% of their shots from outside the arc in conference games, more than against any other team. 'T'will be interesting, without question.

Finally, my player to watch tonight is Jamarcus Ellis. It looked to me like he was not completely with the team emotionally or mentally in Evanston on Saturday. Sure, he picked up a silly technical, but it was more that he seemed disinterested in listening to Dakich in huddles and on the sidelines. Much of that is understandable given the situation, but Indiana needs his defense, rebounding, and distribution to be good.

Tempo-Free Stats Updated

We've updated the Big Ten conference stats post with the weekend games. Not a huge difference, but Indiana and Northwestern's efficiency numbers both changed as a result of that no-D squeaker they played on Saturday night.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Indiana vs. Northwestern HD Box Score 2-23-08

Indiana vs Northwestern
2/23/08 7 p.m. at Evanston, Ill. (Welsh-Ryan Arena)

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Bassett, Armon 40:00 + 3 24/85 3- 5 4- 7 6- 7 12/41 3/29 2/67 5/66 0/31 0/21 3/32 3 1.57
Gordon, Eric 37:36 + 1 18/79 1- 1 1- 5 13-16 6/38 3/32 0/63 3/62 1/29 0/20 3/28 3 1.32
White, D.J. 37:17 + 3 16/83 5- 8 0- 0 6- 9 8/40 2/32 0/62 2/61 0/28 4/20 7/27 1 1.30
Crawford, Jordan 29:41 +16 21/72 2- 2 4- 5 5- 5 7/29 5/22 0/54 3/52 0/24 0/13 4/30 2 2.24
Ellis, Jamarcus 22:22 - 6 0/47 0- 2 0- 2 0- 0 4/25 2/21 1/35 3/35 0/20 1/13 2/14 4 0.00
Stemler, Lance 21:26 + 6 4/44 2- 2 0- 1 0- 0 3/23 0/20 0/35 0/35 0/11 0/12 3/19 5 1.33
Taber, Kyle 8:54 - 8 2/13 1- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 8 0/ 7 0/14 0/14 0/ 9 1/ 5 1/ 5 0 2.00
Thomas, DeAndre 2:42 0 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 5 1/ 5 0/ 3 0/ 1 1/ 5 1 --
TOTALS 40:00 85 14-21 9-20 30-37 41 15/23 3/69 17/69 1/31 9/21 26/32 19 1.45
.667 .450 .811 .652 .043 .246 .032 .429 .813

Northwestern Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Thompson, Michael 40:00 - 3 15/82 5- 8 1- 5 2- 5 13/57 4/44 2/66 0/67 0/21 0/32 1/21 3 0.98
Coble, Kevin 39:22 0 37/82 7-10 5- 6 8- 8 16/56 2/40 1/65 2/65 2/21 1/31 4/21 4 1.87
Moore, Craig 37:30 + 1 12/79 0- 3 3- 6 3- 4 9/54 4/45 3/63 2/62 1/20 0/29 1/19 3 1.10
Peljusic, Ivan 21:57 + 2 4/49 2- 5 0- 1 0- 0 6/29 7/23 0/33 1/36 0/11 0/12 3/12 5 0.67
Okrzesik, Jason 16:45 - 2 5/30 1- 1 1- 2 0- 0 3/24 0/21 1/31 1/29 0/10 0/17 0/ 8 3 1.67
Nash, Jeremy 15:33 - 8 0/25 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/21 2/19 1/25 1/27 1/ 8 1/17 2/ 9 2 0.00
Williams, Sterling 15:13 + 2 6/37 2- 2 0- 1 2- 2 3/22 0/19 1/22 0/24 0/ 7 0/ 7 0/ 9 1 1.52
Baran, Nikola 13:01 - 4 3/26 0- 0 1- 5 0- 0 5/21 3/16 0/24 0/23 0/ 7 1/14 0/ 6 4 0.60
Capocci, Mike 0:37 - 3 0/ 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 0 0/ 1 0/ 0 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 82 17-31 11-26 15-19 57 22/28 9/69 7/69 4/21 6/32 12/21 25 1.24
.548 .423 .789 .786 .130 .101 .190 .188 .571

Efficiency: Indiana 1.232, Northwestern 1.188
eFG%: Indiana 67.1, Northwestern 58.8
Substitutions: Indiana 16, Northwestern 17

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Indiana 1-1, Northwestern 0-0
Layups/Tips: Indiana 9-13, Northwestern 14-21
Jumpers: Indiana 4-7, Northwestern 3-10

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Cincinnati vs. Georgetown HD Box Score 2-23-08

Cincinnati vs Georgetown
02/23/08 12:00 at Verizon Center

Cincinnati Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Vaughn, Deonta 32:52 -14 13/43 0- 4 4- 8 1- 2 12/36 3/24 0/49 4/52 0/16 0/27 2/21 3 1.00
Warren, Jamual 29:37 -19 4/35 1- 2 0- 1 2- 2 3/34 3/31 2/48 2/49 0/15 1/25 1/18 5 1.01
Bishop, Rashad 26:33 -10 10/42 3- 6 0- 1 4- 5 7/27 0/20 2/46 2/45 0/11 0/19 3/19 2 1.07
Sikes, Marcus 22:02 - 8 5/32 1- 4 1- 1 0- 1 5/26 0/21 0/36 2/37 0/11 1/19 5/17 2 0.91
Hrycaniuk, Adam 19:27 - 2 4/26 1- 2 0- 0 2- 2 2/21 1/19 2/29 1/30 0/10 2/15 0/10 5 1.36
Williamson, John 19:22 -14 13/21 4- 4 0- 1 5- 8 5/20 0/15 0/30 1/31 0/10 2/16 5/12 4 1.48
Gentry, Marvin 19:17 - 9 2/22 1- 2 0- 2 0- 0 4/22 0/18 0/28 0/29 0/15 0/17 1/12 0 0.50
McClain, Anthony 10:26 -13 0/11 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/13 0/11 0/19 1/19 0/ 4 1/11 1/ 9 2 0.00
Davis, Larry 10:11 -10 1/13 0- 2 0- 1 1- 4 3/11 0/ 8 2/19 1/17 0/ 3 0/10 0/10 0 0.20
Belton, Kenny 8:07 - 3 1/14 0- 1 0- 0 1- 2 1/ 8 0/ 7 0/12 2/12 0/ 4 0/ 5 0/ 6 4 0.51
Miller, Branden 1:29 + 2 0/ 4 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 1 1/ 1 0 --
Wilks, Darnell 0:33 0 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 0 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 53 11-29 5-15 16-26 44 7/16 8/66 18/66 0/20 10/33 21/27 27 0.94
.379 .333 .615 .438 .121 .273 .000 .303 .778

Georgetown Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Wallace, Jonathan 32:12 +18 6/57 0- 1 2- 3 0- 0 4/37 3/33 0/49 0/49 0/21 0/22 2/25 0 1.50
Hibbert, Roy 30:30 +26 12/59 3- 5 0- 0 6- 8 5/37 2/32 0/47 1/48 5/25 1/21 2/30 1 1.36
Sapp, Jessie 28:56 +26 16/57 1- 1 3- 6 5- 7 7/29 2/22 4/46 2/44 0/22 0/16 4/24 1 1.55
Freeman, Austin 27:59 +28 13/58 3- 4 1- 4 4- 4 8/31 3/23 1/43 2/42 1/21 1/15 3/24 3 1.31
Summers, DaJuan 27:48 +18 10/52 3- 4 0- 3 4- 5 7/32 1/25 1/42 1/43 0/19 1/17 3/22 2 1.07
Rivers, Jeremiah 16:59 + 1 6/30 1- 1 0- 2 4- 4 3/16 1/13 1/30 4/30 0/13 0/13 4/15 4 1.22
Ewing, Patrick 13:26 - 1 6/19 1- 2 0- 1 4- 4 3/13 0/10 3/23 0/23 0/ 8 0/10 1/12 5 1.22
Macklin, Vernon 11:09 - 4 4/17 2- 2 0- 0 0- 1 2/ 6 0/ 4 0/20 0/18 0/ 6 2/ 8 1/ 5 3 1.62
Crawford, Tyler 6:31 - 6 0/ 8 0- 0 0- 2 0- 2 2/ 5 0/ 3 0/13 1/11 0/ 6 1/ 7 2/ 4 0 0.00
Wattad, Omar 2:14 - 3 0/ 4 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 1/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 6 1/ 6 0/ 2 0/ 3 0/ 2 0 0.00
Jansen, Bryon 2:12 - 3 0/ 4 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 2 0/ 2 0/ 6 0/ 6 0/ 2 0/ 3 0/ 2 2 --
TOTALS 40:00 73 14-20 6-22 27-35 42 12/20 10/66 12/66 6/29 6/27 23/33 21 1.25
.700 .273 .771 .600 .152 .182 .207 .222 .697

Efficiency: Cincinnati 0.803, Georgetown 1.106
eFG%: Cincinnati 42.0, Georgetown 54.8
Substitutions: Cincinnati 39, Georgetown 33

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Cincinnati 0-0, Georgetown 2-3
Layups/Tips: Cincinnati 7-12, Georgetown 8-11
Jumpers: Cincinnati 4-17, Georgetown 4-6

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Big Ten by the Numbers

Update: We've updated the tempo-free conference numbers through games on 3/9/2008 (the end of the conference season).

We've been working on a little project here at SaWA to be able to look at stats for the Big Ten teams.  For the most part, we use Ken Pomeroy's excellent site as our stats resource, and we neither aspire to nor hope to duplicate (much less exceed) that effort.  However, we thought we might be able to complement it at bit for Big Ten teams. When John Gasaway was knows as the Big Ten Wonk, he advocated that stats for conference games only were the real stuff when it game to useful data, given that most teams overall season numbers are possibly distorted by playing weak competition in the non-conference season. In fact, Gasaway continues to look at those numbers (most recently here) at Basketball Prospectus. We plan on doing some of that, and adding a little more.

First, here are the efficiency numbers for all of the Big Ten teams for conference games only. O Eff is offensive efficiency, or points per possession (PPP) scored. D Eff is defensive efficiency, or PPP allowed. Eff Margin is just O Eff - D Eff. The numbers in parentheses are the conference ranks for that column.

Team Tempo O Eff D Eff Eff Margin
Wisconsin 60.1 (10) 1.09 (1) 0.91 (1) 0.18 (1)
Purdue 64.6 (3) 1.05 (4) 0.94 (2) 0.12 (2)
Michigan State 63.1 (6) 1.06 (3) 0.97 (4) 0.09 (3)
Indiana 64.8 (2) 1.08 (2) 1.01 (6) 0.07 (4)
Ohio State 63.4 (5) 1.02 (5) 0.95 (3) 0.07 (5)
Illinois 61.8 (8) 0.99 (7) 0.99 (5) 0.00 (6)
Minnesota 65.1 (1) 1.01 (6) 1.03 (8) -0.02 (7)
Iowa 59.2 (11) 0.94 (11) 1.02 (7) -0.08 (8)
Michigan 64.4 (4) 0.96 (9) 1.04 (9) -0.08 (9)
Penn State 62.0 (7) 0.98 (8) 1.12 (10) -0.14 (10)
Northwestern 61.2 (9) 0.95 (10) 1.16 (11) -0.22 (11)

That's some good stuff, no? I thought about saving this next piece until the end, because it's without question the coup de grace and all, but it really belongs here. This is another Wonk construct. He used to post a graph showing where teams registered pictorially in terms of O Eff vs. D Eff. And since Lawton loves the charts, here is that very type of graph. (I'm hoping it won't look as crappy as I fear it will, but we'll see, and deal with it later if it does.)

But wait! There's more! Here are the offensive numbers. If you want some explanation, check them out here. The only difference is that these efficiency numbers are per possession rather than per 100 possessions. Conference ranks in parentheses.

Team O Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTRate
Wisconsin 1.09 (1) 51.5 (3) 18.7 (2) 32.5 (6) 30.1 (2)
Indiana 1.08 (2) 51.6 (2) 20.7 (5) 34.4 (3) 30.5 (1)
Michigan State 1.06 (3) 52.2 (1) 22.2 (10) 35.9 (1) 22.3 (8)
Purdue 1.05 (4) 49.8 (6) 18.1 (1) 31.3 (9) 26.7 (3)
Ohio State 1.02 (5) 51.3 (4) 20.8 (6) 32.3 (7) 18.7 (10)
Minnesota 1.01 (6) 49.7 (7) 21.9 (9) 34.0 (4) 24.6 (4)
Illinois 0.99 (7) 48.8 (9) 21.9 (8) 35.1 (2) 23.2 (6)
Penn State 0.98 (8) 48.5 (10) 21.0 (7) 32.0 (8) 22.7 (7)
Michigan 0.96 (9) 45.1 (11) 19.9 (4) 33.5 (5) 20.1 (9)
Northwestern 0.95 (10) 49.4 (8) 19.3 (3) 21.8 (11) 14.3 (11)
Iowa 0.94 (11) 50.6 (5) 25.0 (11) 26.9 (10) 23.8 (5)
           
Team 2FG% 3FG% FT% 3FGA/FGA A/FGM
Wisconsin 48.8 (5) 37.8 (3) 73.8 (2) 33.4 (10) 54.5 (9)
Indiana 53.0 (2) 32.8 (8) 77.9 (1) 38.1 (6) 52.6 (11)
Michigan State 51.2 (3) 36.7 (4) 72.0 (3) 26.2 (11) 69.7 (2)
Purdue 43.7 (11) 39.6 (1) 71.9 (4) 39.0 (5) 63.5 (5)
Ohio State 53.6 (1) 31.6 (10) 69.6 (6) 37.6 (7) 54.0 (10)
Minnesota 45.6 (9) 38.1 (2) 66.6 (8) 35.4 (8) 65.5 (4)
Illinois 48.7 (6) 32.6 (9) 62.2 (11) 35.2 (9) 61.8 (6)
Penn State 45.7 (8) 35.1 (5) 63.0 (10) 39.9 (4) 56.7 (7)
Michigan 45.3 (10) 30.0 (11) 70.1 (5) 43.1 (3) 56.0 (8)
Northwestern 47.4 (7) 34.7 (6) 67.0 (7) 43.8 (2) 71.0 (1)
Iowa 49.5 (4) 34.6 (7) 65.7 (9) 47.6 (1) 67.2 (3)

 

That's not all! Here are the defensive numbers. Conference ranks in parentheses.

Team D Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTRate
Wisconsin 0.91 (1) 44.2 (1) 20.1 (6) 29.7 (5) 17.1 (1)
Purdue 0.94 (2) 47.9 (5) 26.0 (1) 33.0 (7) 31.6 (11)
Ohio State 0.95 (3) 45.6 (2) 21.9 (5) 34.5 (9) 18.1 (2)
Michigan State 0.97 (4) 47.0 (3) 17.9 (9) 29.1 (2) 22.3 (7)
Illinois 0.99 (5) 47.2 (4) 19.8 (7) 29.5 (4) 31.2 (10)
Indiana 1.01 (6) 48.7 (7) 17.2 (11) 28.1 (1) 19.1 (3)
Iowa 1.02 (7) 48.0 (6) 17.4 (10) 29.4 (3) 20.2 (5)
Minnesota 1.03 (8) 51.3 (8) 23.8 (2) 35.8 (10) 28.8 (8)
Michigan 1.04 (9) 53.1 (9) 22.2 (4) 33.0 (8) 20.1 (4)
Penn State 1.12 (10) 56.2 (10) 19.0 (8) 31.2 (6) 20.2 (6)
Northwestern 1.16 (11) 59.8 (11) 23.5 (3) 39.2 (11) 30.7 (9)
           
Team 2FG% 3FG% FT% 3FGA/FGA A/FGM
Wisconsin 42.9 (1) 31.1 (1) 68.2 (4) 33.6 (10) 50.0 (1)
Purdue 47.0 (7) 33.2 (4) 69.6 (5) 31.8 (11) 60.5 (7)
Ohio State 44.3 (2) 31.6 (3) 73.4 (11) 41.6 (3) 64.5 (9)
Michigan State 46.8 (5) 31.5 (2) 65.5 (2) 38.2 (6) 59.8 (5)
Illinois 44.7 (3) 34.2 (6) 71.1 (9) 37.0 (7) 54.9 (2)
Indiana 46.9 (6) 34.3 (7) 63.8 (1) 40.0 (4) 59.3 (4)
Iowa 46.4 (4) 34.1 (5) 72.6 (10) 34.3 (9) 59.3 (3)
Minnesota 50.4 (8) 35.2 (8) 70.6 (7) 39.4 (5) 60.0 (6)
Michigan 50.8 (9) 38.0 (10) 66.0 (3) 36.6 (8) 62.8 (8)
Penn State 56.2 (10) 37.5 (9) 70.2 (6) 42.0 (2) 65.9 (10)
Northwestern 59.4 (11) 40.2 (11) 71.0 (8) 43.1 (1) 71.1 (11)

Yowsa

I don't know if there's any truth to it, but what a mess it would be if this were true. I really don't have anything to add to what PostmanR has to say other than "Ugh."

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Hoosiers Turn It Over Lots, But Also Turn Over Boilermakers

A big win by the Hoosiers last night makes the Big Ten a three pony race.  IU, Purdue, and Wisconsin all stand with two losses (although Purdue has 12 wins, while IU and Wisconsin have 11).

It certainly wasn't the prettiest game I've seen (no good, bad, and ugly theme this post-game recap, as it was mostly ugly.)  IU turned the ball over 22 times according to our HD Box Score, or 23 times according to the Indianapolis Star's Box Score.  (They have D.J. White down for a third turnover.)  I have them with 24 turnovers, as they surely  threw it away once more while going down the tunnel after the game.  It was as sloppy as I've seen them handle the ball in quite some time.  That being said, it's par for Purdue to force teams into so many turnovers.  As Abs pointed out to me, Purdue ranks #11 at forcing turnovers.  The numbers sometimes do tell the story.

What the Hoosiers lacked in safeguarding the ball, they made up for in rebounding.  They were solid on the glass (except for a stretch in the second half where they allowed Purdue to make a comeback).  IU sported a +16 rebounding margin, which offset their strong desire to give a cold shooting team a chance by giving them extra possessions.  Purdue was not as sharp from the floor, shooting only 24% from behind the arc (they average 36%) and a dreadful 52% from the free-throw line (they average 71%).  Of course, the numbers tell the story for the FT%, because as we've pointed out before (here and here), the Hoosier's bring out the worst in other teams at the free-throw line.  In fact, they continue to sport the 3rd best FT defense in the nation... 62%.  Abs and I laugh about this being the X-factor.

D.J. White starting was a surprise to me, but not so much as the 36 minutes he played.  Early reports indicated he'd miss a few weeks, and he clearly wasn't 100% but he was still very sharp.  The Hoosiers went to him early and established his presence in the low post.  They came away empty, but it set a tone and Purdue usually looked to double-team him.  His 19 points were a great contribution, but I believe his 15 rebounds were even more valuable.  Either way, a double-double from a player expected to be out for a knee injury is a well-received contribution.  Purdue didn't have the big bodies to match, and so it changed the focus of the game to have him play.  I have doubts as to the outcome of this game if he didn't.  I'm not suggesting the Hoosiers lose, but it's a much different game without him.

Our readers (both of them) know about our affinity for Kyle Taber and he was brilliant last night.  3/3 shooting for 6 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal in 21 minutes.  That's a good line, but what doesn't show up in the stat line is the constant screening that he did, particularly at the elbow and higher.  The Hooseirs are not a pick and roll team, but the high screen is essential for allowing Gordon and Bassett the ability to gain a step and drive to the hole.  Repeatedly we saw Gordon step through double-teams, and the seam was created by the screen.

Armon Bassett's play was also sparkling.  He shot a perfect 4 of 4 from beyond the arc, and was extremely effective in drive and dish attacks.  His +22 +/- rating and this lofty 2.17 Points Per Weighted Shot tell the story.  He was on the bench during the second half run where Purdue closed the gap to 2 points.  I had been yelling at the TV for Sampson to put him back in.  Once he got back in, Indiana built their lead back up to stay.

Eric Gordon had a tough night shooting, but showed that he knows how to use his quickness to drive and draw fouls.  He has a toughness that goes under-appreciated.

Brent Musburger is terrible.   How is he gainfully employed by ESPN?  I kept yelling at him to talk about THIS game, talk about THESE players.  When there weren't long pauses (presumably where Steve Lavin was poking him to wake him up)  there were inane pontifications about how much a hot dog and a soda cost at Mackey Arena, or how Midwestern barber shops are the best places to get your hair cut and learn what folks are talking about.Brent Musberger

Lavin has a sharp coaching perspective and if set up, can deliver some gems that you might not see.  But he was never set up.  It must make him want to return to coaching more than anything.

Purdue vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-19-08

Purdue vs Indiana
2/19/08 7:02 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Purdue Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Kramer, Chris 34:47 -10 8/59 3- 6 0- 2 2- 4 8/63 5/55 3/64 1/63 0/25 0/44 7/22 5 0.81
Hummel, Robbie 33:57 - 7 17/59 4- 6 3- 6 0- 0 12/61 0/49 4/61 2/61 2/25 2/44 4/21 2 1.42
Moore, E'Twaun 33:37 -12 11/57 2- 8 1- 7 4- 5 15/58 1/43 0/62 0/62 0/28 1/41 1/20 3 0.63
Grant, Keaton 27:56 - 1 10/46 2- 7 2- 6 0- 0 13/53 1/40 1/50 0/49 0/22 2/40 0/20 4 0.77
Martin, Scott 22:07 - 2 12/46 4- 8 1- 5 1- 6 13/42 1/29 2/42 0/43 0/12 2/29 1/13 4 0.76
Green, Marcus 16:52 + 7 1/37 0- 1 0- 1 1- 2 2/31 2/29 2/29 1/30 0/13 2/20 0/ 9 4 0.34
Calasan, Nemanja 14:28 - 7 3/18 1- 4 0- 2 1- 2 6/21 0/15 1/26 1/24 0/15 2/15 1/10 0 0.43
Johnson, JaJuan 10:26 - 3 6/15 2- 2 0- 0 2- 2 2/22 0/20 1/18 0/20 0/ 9 2/15 0/ 7 4 2.03
Crump, Tarrance 5:14 -11 0/ 0 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 8 0/ 7 0/12 0/12 0/ 6 0/ 7 1/ 3 0 0.00
Riddell, Bobby 0:34 + 1 0/ 3 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 68 18-43 7-29 11-21 72 10/25 14/74 5/75 2/31 14/51 16/25 26 0.83
.419 .241 .524 .400 .189 .067 .065 .275 .640

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Gordon, Eric 38:07 + 7 22/73 3- 9 1- 3 13-15 12/39 3/27 1/70 5/69 1/42 0/24 4/49 1 1.15
White, D.J. 36:00 + 4 19/65 6-11 0- 0 7- 8 11/36 2/25 1/65 3/66 1/40 6/22 9/44 5 1.28
Bassett, Armon 29:33 +22 16/61 0- 1 4- 4 4- 5 5/33 4/28 1/49 5/50 0/26 0/18 8/34 0 2.17
Ellis, Jamarcus 26:42 + 2 7/45 1- 4 1- 2 2- 2 6/28 0/22 0/49 6/51 1/29 0/19 5/34 4 1.01
Crawford, Jordan 22:59 - 1 4/46 0- 2 0- 1 4- 4 3/25 1/22 0/46 3/45 0/28 1/14 2/34 1 0.82
Taber, Kyle 21:03 + 2 6/40 3- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/24 2/21 1/38 0/38 0/22 1/12 4/26 3 2.00
Stemler, Lance 18:45 + 4 3/39 0- 0 1- 1 0- 0 1/15 0/14 0/36 1/35 1/22 0/11 1/23 1 3.00
Thomas, DeAndre 6:48 + 5 0/16 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/10 2/ 9 0/12 0/11 0/ 6 0/ 5 2/11 2 0.00
TOTALS 40:00 77 13-31 7-11 30-34 42 14/20 4/75 23/74 4/43 9/25 37/51 17 1.32
.419 .636 .882 .700 .053 .311 .093 .360 .725

Efficiency: Purdue 0.907, Indiana 1.041
eFG%: Purdue 39.6, Indiana 56.0
Substitutions: Purdue 29, Indiana 22

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Purdue 0-0, Indiana 3-3
Layups/Tips: Purdue 11-28, Indiana 7-15
Jumpers: Purdue 7-15, Indiana 3-13

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Chucking It From the Not-So-Cheap Seats

The Girl and I took a trip to Bloomington this past weekend to see our beloved Hoosiers in person.  We made the plans a long time ago, bought the tickets off of eBay, and had no idea at the time that we were going to be attending a game amid the maelstrom that is the IU basketball program right now. Thankfully for us, we were able to see a win for the Hoosiers, and it was marvelous for this fan to see a game in which they played as well as they have all season.

Piggy-backing on some things Lawton already pointed out, I will say that I thought the team got excellent contributions from just about everyone. Not good contributions.  Excellent ones. DJ White was the only thing going for IU in the early minutes.  Of course, that's just par for the course for him, but he was still doing Good Things. Jamarcus Ellis, of the 24% 3-point shooting for the season, hit a couple of big 3's early, and they were a key to the comeback run. Plus, he threw that silly alley-oop pass to DJ. Ellis's 157.6 O rating is high for anyone, but it's huge for him. Kyle Taber ... I know I've talked about him a lot, but he is  a walk on. And he was excellent for the Hoosiers again. He hit his only free throws, grabbed a couple of rebounds, made a huge steal, and helped pick up the leadership with DJ injured. The Hoosier D played its best while Taber was out there, too, holding the Spartans to 0.75 points per possession while he was in the game.  Only one other player can match that, and only one player's team efficiency margin was better than Taber's. (Speaking of DJ's injury, I saw the season flash before my eyes as DJ writhed in pain on the floor. Let's hope he's OK, because I fear that all is lost without him.) Jordan Crawford, despite a propensity to toss up poor shots -- a propensity I fear he will never get rid of -- was marvelous.  He hit most of those shots and dished 5 assists as well.  Lots of good stuff there.

I will only repeat one set of Lawton's kudos, and those go to DeAndre Thomas. I think Thomas is a guy who will eventually be a weapon for IU. He has good feet and a nice touch, and he's a big guy (although I think he needs to be less big to be a weapon). In a game where DJ was out due to injury, Thomas played 16 and a half minutes and played them well.  He also looked as tired as any player I think I've ever seen on a basketball court, and he gutted it out. The one player who matched Taber's team D efficiency and bested his team efficiency margin?  DeAndre Thomas.  'Nuff said.

But I didn't really want to talk about the numbers or the overall game that much. The Girl and I got the game about an hour before tip off (I like to watch the shoot-around), and we quickly noticed Erin Andrews's terrible green sweater. I don't know how it looked to you, but it looked somewhat teal when I later saw it on TV.  But it looked awfully damned green in person.  Grrrr! Still, the students love her, and they chanted her name every time she was doing a report, as well as a few times when she wasn't.

Speaking of love, I have never been in a louder Assembly Hall. The Girl has, but perhaps only because she was there when Kirk Haston hit a buzzer-beating 3 to beat then-#1 ranked Michigan State. She rushed the floor that night, so she has extra happy memories of that game.  She was also at Rupp Arena for the 2002 Sweet Sixteen game when the Hoosiers improbably beat Duke. Nonetheless, she agreed that the atmosphere for the game was electric, and it was without question the loudest of the 10 or so games I've been to there. The fans seemed to want to show their support for the team, despite any negative feelings they may have about the coach. And those feelings aren't so crystal clear. When Sampson was introduced, it was to a good number of boos, along with some vain attempts to chant his name, attempts which were repeated 2 or three times during the course of the game, failing every time. Every time but the last that is. As the game came down the stretch, Armon Bassett made a huge play, and the whole place was thrilled, loud, raucous even. Sampson, showing more emotion than a coach can really afford to show in a normal situation, emphatically pumped his fist and met Bassett for a hug on his way to the bench. As the players hugged their coach, the Kelvin Sampson chant went up again, and this time it had some real throat to it.  This time, no boos were audible.  While I couldn't join in the chant, I did drink in the power of the moment. It was one to remember. I looked at the Girl (who was also not chanting), shaking my head, and she said, "I know.  But the thing is, I do like him."

And I think that's really the crux of it. Sampson, someone who can clearly coach 'em up, comes across as a likeable, affable, pleasant guy. He just happens to struggle to follow the rules. In some ways it's the same as the situation was with Bobby Knight. He's someone who can coach a team to play basketball. He just couldn't follow the rules. True, they were different rules, but they were rules, nonetheless. The difference is that Knight wasn't particularly likeable (at least not to me), even though one could get behind him as a basketball coach. Ultimately, the situation is the same: as much as I wish it weren't so, as much as I wish for a program to achieve some tranquility, the coach has to go.

But I'm with the fans at the Hall the other night. I like this team and these players, and I'm rooting for them like crazy.

Monday, February 18, 2008

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Michigan State vs. Indiana (2/16/08)

 

The Good

Eric Gordon - He was on fire and you got the sense early that he could hit from anywhere on the floor.  From distance, off the dribble, catch and shoot (loved that underneath curl off the screen for three), pull-up jumpers, and taking it to the hoop with force... he was not to be denied.  As the HD box score shows, he was 2 points under half the scoring (28/60) while on the court.  In a way, D.J. White's knee injury allowed Gordon to be more selfish with scoring... a good thing on that night, as he was in the zone.

DeAndre Thomas - He was a huge catalyst, immediately posting up and dominating on the interior.  It's odd to see Michigan State dominated on the inside.  I've come to expect that Michigan State will always win that battle... in fact, I was uncomfortable most of the night because it was so off-putting.  Anyway, Thomas' third foul was called just because he was big.  It was unfortunate, because although he wouldn't pick up another foul, it took him out of the game to prevent further foul trouble and effectively silenced his night.

Playing Zone - I'm not a big fan of zone defenses, but I do think there are times where it is strategically important to play them.  Sampson, may be a liar and a cheater, but he does have good coaching chops.  His decision to go to the 2-3 zone paid off in spades.  It saved our interior from foul trouble and the Spartans struggled against it.  What do you think Dre Thomas' fouls per minute would have been if they'd stayed in man?

Drew Neitzel - I was thinking that he didn't play particularly well.  Then, I realized he'd had 21 points well into the second half (he wouldn't score again).  I've always thought good players score without you really being aware of it.  True, he only had 1 assist against 2 turnovers but it was apparent that Neitzel had little to no help this night.

 

The Bad

D.J. White's Knee - I feel culpable.  I stupidly put the jinx on and now D.J. goes down to injury.  I haven't seen the results of the MRI (or more so the articles about the results of the MRI), but early signs looked promising.  We need him against Purdue, but it looks he won't play in that game.

Dick Vitale - I have the rare gene that allows me to tolerate Dickie V.  His unabashed love for Duke is obnoxious, but I love it when a team catches fire and goes on a run and his emotions take over.  When a steal is followed by a big dunk, or a long three forces a timeout, his "OOooooooooohh  Ooooohhhhhhhhhhh... they're rolling... you better get a T.O., baby!" is hard to beat.  Sadly, those moments -- the really genuine ones, not the shtick -- are few and far between. 

I appreciate the strong stance on Sampson's infractions, and he agrees with me about Greenspan needing to go, but I can't stand when he talks about the Hoosiers because he always injects Bob Knight into the discussion.  Should the building be named after Bobby?  Probably, but this isn't the time, Dick.  While he's quick to praise RMK for his zero violations in 29 years, he does so in the context of discussing a coach who has made some regrettable decisions.  Yet, wasn't Knight fired for a series of regrettable decisions?  On the scale of fireable infractions, I think choking a player and getting tough with a student trump making impermissable phone calls and lying about it.  I'm a Knight supporter, but only the Dr. Jekyll side and not so much the Mr. Hyde.  Hoosier fans are still fractured following Knight's ouster, and I hate all things not productive to getting the program back pointing in the right direction.  There will be a time to honor Bobby for his contributions to Indiana basketball, but we aren't there yet.

Erin Andrews - Abs texted me:  "Erin Andrews is wearing green.  Boo!"  Security made a student remove his T-shirt calling for Knight's return at an earlier game... they should have required Erin to remove her offending green sweater.

 

The Ugly

Turnovers - Michigan State had a bunch of them.  They were sloppy with the ball and it allowed the Hoosiers to go from 11 down to double digit leads for the balance of the game.

Surrender? - I kept waiting for the Spartans to mount a push and claw their way back into the game.  Izzo was quite animated early, but with 15 minutes to play he was planted on the bench and seemed resigned to the loss.   There was no push, or at least they couldn't stop the Hoosiers long enough to make one.  Maybe he knew something that was lost on the audience -- he's an exceptionally good coach -- but it sure looked like an early concession.  This was the bizarro Spartans.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Michigan State vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-16-08

Michigan State vs Indiana
2/16/08 9:04 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Michigan State Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Neitzel, Drew 36:37 -18 21/56 4- 9 3- 7 4- 4 16/43 1/27 2/60 2/59 0/38 2/26 2/25 2 1.17
Morgan, Raymar 25:47 - 5 3/39 1- 5 0- 0 1- 3 5/30 1/25 2/42 3/43 0/22 0/17 4/22 3 0.47
Naymick, Drew 25:36 -16 7/37 3- 3 0- 0 1- 1 3/29 0/26 0/43 0/43 2/29 1/19 2/15 1 2.01
Lucas, Kalin 25:17 -13 7/36 2- 6 0- 0 3- 4 6/28 3/22 1/40 3/42 0/23 0/18 1/15 2 0.89
Allen, Chris 23:00 -19 10/35 0- 0 3- 5 1- 2 5/28 0/23 2/37 1/34 0/27 1/19 2/15 0 1.68
Walton, Travis 19:33 -11 8/30 4- 7 0- 0 0- 0 7/21 4/14 1/35 2/34 0/18 0/12 2/14 5 1.14
Suton, Goran 16:41 - 4 0/30 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/16 0/16 0/26 4/27 1/17 0/ 6 1/14 2 --
Gray, Marquise 14:16 0 0/26 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/17 0/17 0/27 2/27 0/16 0/ 9 2/ 9 2 --
Summers, Durrell 8:52 - 1 5/12 0- 1 1- 2 2- 2 3/10 0/ 7 0/15 2/15 0/ 4 0/ 7 2/ 4 0 1.27
Ibok, Idong 4:17 - 8 0/ 4 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 3 0/ 3 0/ 5 0/ 6 1/ 1 0/ 2 0/ 2 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 61 14-31 7-14 12-16 45 9/21 8/67 19/68 4/39 5/27 21/27 17 1.16
.452 .500 .750 .429 .119 .279 .103 .185 .778

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Ellis, Jamarcus 36:45 +12 12/70 3- 3 2- 4 0- 0 7/54 3/47 4/61 1/61 0/31 1/27 3/25 3 1.71
Gordon, Eric 31:15 +14 28/60 7-10 2- 5 8- 9 15/42 1/27 1/55 2/54 1/22 0/20 5/22 2 1.45
Bassett, Armon 30:10 +17 5/61 1- 5 1- 3 0- 0 8/44 5/36 2/48 1/48 0/26 0/21 2/23 0 0.63
Crawford, Jordan 26:17 +21 12/58 3- 5 2- 5 0- 0 10/35 5/25 0/41 3/42 0/19 3/15 2/17 2 1.20
Taber, Kyle 18:18 +15 2/39 0- 0 0- 0 2- 2 0/21 0/21 1/32 0/30 0/13 0/ 8 2/17 2 2.11
Thomas, DeAndre 16:33 +18 10/39 5- 9 0- 0 0- 0 9/27 0/18 0/28 1/28 0/13 1/10 3/13 3 1.11
White, D.J. 15:05 + 3 6/29 3- 5 0- 0 0- 0 5/24 1/19 0/25 1/26 0/12 0/12 2/ 6 0 1.20
White, Mike 12:48 + 2 0/28 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/17 0/17 2/21 1/20 0/ 7 1/ 8 1/ 6 2 --
Stemler, Lance 12:16 - 7 5/16 1- 2 1- 1 0- 0 3/21 0/18 0/19 0/21 0/12 0/14 2/ 6 1 1.67
Finkelmeier, Brett 0:15 0 0/ 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0 --
Ahlfeld, Adam 0:15 0 0/ 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0 --
TOTALS 40:00 80 23-39 8-18 10-11 57 15/31 10/68 10/67 1/31 6/27 22/27 15 1.29
.590 .444 .909 .484 .147 .149 .032 .222 .815

Efficiency: Michigan State 0.897, Indiana 1.194
eFG%: Michigan State 54.4, Indiana 61.4
Substitutions: Michigan State 39, Indiana 21

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Michigan State 1-1, Indiana 4-4
Layups/Tips: Michigan State 7-13, Indiana 12-20
Jumpers: Michigan State 6-17, Indiana 7-15

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Friday, February 15, 2008

The Calamity that is Kelvin Sampson

I've been dreading wanting to write something about Kelvin Sampson and his cheating and (now lying) ways, but I'm so stung by the debacle that I fear I'll embark on a fiery rant, laden with expletives and inflammatory rhetoric.  I reserve right to do that at any time (don't tell me my business), but I'm going to try to remain cool and detached for this post. 

Really, John Gasaway has the most eloquently written post on the matter.

To me, it's clear that Sampson won't resign even though in all likelihood he's out of a job by June.  Whether they suspend him while due process runs its course, or whether they fire him outright and risk the legal proceedings... he's done.  There is no chance he'll be vindicated in the following months.  Is the end of the line for his coaching career?  Probably, which is why I think he will fight to the end.  What program would invite this mess into their athletics department?  He left a mess for Oklahoma.  He's leaving a fine mess for Indiana.  That said, he does have good coaching chops, and maybe someday some nowhere school decides the exposure is worth the gambit.  My money says he's persona non grata.

More important to me is that the fallout from this should also be felt at the top.  Athletic Director Rick Greenspan knowingly brought this blight into our historically clean program.  Hoosier fans take great pride in a clean program... nary a major violation since 1960.  (and recall the scandal that ensued when Alford posed for a charity calendar?)  Now Indiana is looking at five major violations.

Sampson wasn't exactly on double-secret probation when he was hired.  He was awaiting a judgment from the NCAA on impermissible recruiting calls while at Oklahoma, and whether or not sanctions would follow him to Indiana.  He was radioactive when he was hired.

Pat Forde nailed it in March 2006 when he said "for the next few years, the temperature is going to be 1,000 degrees Kelvin under the chair of Indiana athletic directory Rick Greenspan."  Foolishly, Greenspan has taken the university's flagship sport and invited disgrace into it.  This debacle is as much his doing, as it is Sampson's.  He should tender his resignation.

Lastly, I've read ridiculous notions that with Bob Knight's abrupt resignation from Texas Tech that he could be interested in the Indiana job.  No chance.  It's well-past time to move on.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

The Bizarro Game

So last night's matchup between Indiana and Wisconsin (HD box here, albeit with some possession counting oddity) wasn't really a bizarro game. Not everything was opposite.  However, overall, it was opposite of what happened in Madison (thoughts, HD box). In that game, the defenses were absolutely dominant, with both teams registering efficiencies under a point per possession, and Wisonsin's D holding IU to 0.778 PPP. In last night's rematch, the D was an afterthought, and an ineffective one at that.  The offenses did pretty much what they wanted, to the tune of 1.14 PPP for IU and 1.12 for Wisconsin. That's against two of the best defenses in the Big Ten, both of which are in the top 25 in the country!

The thing that is sticking in my craw, overcookin' my grits, really chapping my ass, is one call down the stretch. I know it's petty and futile to talk about the refs, and I believe John Gasaway suggested that it should never be done. However, I have to admit that I was furious with a non-call last night. Looking at the play-by-play, it isn't completely clear which sequence it was, but I believe it was right around 44 seconds left in the game. Trevon Hughes dribbled up from the baseline and was engulfed by the Hoosier D. He picked up his dribble and fell to the floor, and the officials called a held ball, possession arrow Wisconsin. I was hollering at the TV that it was a travel. I'm pretty sure he pivot came up after he fell down. After looking at the replay, it may not have been a travel, but yadambetcha it was a double dribble. Hughes touched the ball with both hands before he fell, but he failed to catch it. The ball then bounced on the floor, and he caught it, before going to the floor. The Badgers ended up scoring on the possession, and those two points equaled their margin of victory. I know that IU had later chances to stop them, but that one stuck with me because I thought it was an obvious call, and it's not like it happened in a dim corner of the court away from the ball. OK, let's move on.  I just had to vent.

That said, this game was a toss-up. Given that neither team could get a stop (even when the other team seemed to double dribble -- sorry, I'll let it go), I thought the team with the last realistic possession would win. Thus, when Hughes fouled Eric Gordon with 17 seconds lost, I told the Girl that it might be good for the Badgers to foul that early (about the same time that analyst Shon Morris said the same thing on TV). Even though the Hoosiers played very good D on that last play, Butch banked in a 3 for the lead. The Hoosiers walked around dazed and eventually got the ball in to Jamarcus Ellis, who did a good job trying to get a winning shot off. The dazed movements after the bank reminded me of Syracuse after Keith Smart hit The Shot in the '87 championship game. Luckily, they've changed the rule since then so the clock doesn't run after the shot goes in. A timeout would have been very handy there, as they could have maybe gotten someone other than shoots-23-percent-on-his-threes Ellis to take the final heave.

Still, while neither team got a lot of stops, the two keys might have been Jason Bohannon, who scored 18 points, all on his 6 of 11 3-point shooting, and the second half shut down of DJ White. The Badgers did an excellent job keeping the ball out of DJ's hands in the second half. DJ ended the game with a stratospheric 147.6 O rating, but he was only able to use 20% of the team's possessions, and that's low for him. DJ's first half offensive numbers were even more wow-ish: O rating of 205.8 on 23% of possessions. Eric Gordon picked up the slack in a big way, using 44% of possessions for the game and still posting a quite good 111.9 O rating. That means that Gordon used an incredible 64% of possessions in the second half, while posting a 108.0 O rating. Those are two workhorse guys on the offensive end. Still, as evidence that Wisconsin severely limited DJ in the second half, he had a 70.1 O rating on 17% of possessions in that period. That's an impressive half time adjustment.

I thought that the Badgers were very smart, both in how they shot Indiana out of that 2-3 zone, and in how they recognized and attacked. Any time Stemler was stuck on Butch in the post, that's where the ball went.  Score. Any time Taber was on Landry at the top of the key, Landry drove. Score. Taber's valuable to the team, but he's not tall enough or big enough to guard Landry one on one.

This is turning into some serious diarrhea of the keyboard, but the Hoosiers were just one play short of a big win last night. Maybe one just has to look at it as karma. The Hoosiers took two tough road games last week, including a double-OT game in which Gordon banked in a three to keep them in it. If they can win the next two against the Spartans and Boilermakers, they'll be in very good shape. If you had offered them 4 out of 5 wins before this brutal stretch, I think they would have taken it.

One last note on the Kelvin Sampson issue. Pat Forde has an interesting article up on the subject, and I think IU might do well to do just what Forde suggests at the end: suspend Sampson until everything is finalized with the NCAA. If the allegations turn out to be incorrect, reinstate him. If they're correct, fire him.  In the interim, let Dan Dakich lead the team. I suggested to the Girl that Dakich might do an OK job last night. I don't know how good at a head coach he is, but there's no indication that he's a cheater or a liar. It might hurt the team's chances for the rest of the season, but it doesn't really punish these players too much for what the coach might have done, and it gives them the chance to do what they can on the court. It also precludes an possible tainting of any success they might have in the postseason.

Bah. Have a good Hallmark Day, everyone.

Wisconsin vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-13-08

There's something wrong with the Possession counts for this game, since there's a difference of 3. So I need to look into that.  Maybe my software decided counted the possession where Trevon Hughes fell to the floor twice.

Wisconsin vs Indiana
2/13/08 7:06 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Wisconsin Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Flowers, Michael 35:37 + 3 15/61 3- 8 3- 4 0- 0 12/57 3/45 0/51 1/54 0/33 2/33 5/23 3 1.25
Landry, Marcus 33:49 - 2 8/57 4-12 0- 1 0- 1 13/51 2/38 0/50 0/49 1/32 2/29 0/23 3 0.59
Bohannon, Jason 31:45 +14 18/64 0- 1 6-11 0- 0 12/52 1/40 1/48 1/50 0/28 0/27 3/22 1 1.50
Hughes, Trevon 29:15 - 5 8/47 1- 2 1- 7 3- 4 9/47 2/38 0/42 3/45 0/29 0/28 0/18 3 0.73
Krabbenhoft, Joe 26:29 - 9 2/33 1- 4 0- 0 0- 0 4/40 0/36 0/37 1/38 0/28 5/26 5/19 2 0.50
Butch, Brian 26:15 - 1 13/40 5- 8 1- 2 0- 0 10/40 0/30 0/35 2/38 0/22 2/24 2/17 2 1.30
Stiemsma, Greg 13:41 + 9 4/32 2- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/23 3/21 0/22 0/22 1/14 1/10 3/10 2 2.00
Leuer, Jon 3:07 + 1 0/ 6 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 1/ 5 0/ 4 0/ 5 0/ 4 0/ 4 0/ 3 0/ 3 0 0.00
TOTALS 40:00 68 16-37 11-26 3- 5 63 11/27 1/58 9/61 2/38 13/36 19/27 16 1.04
.432 .423 .600 .407 .017 .148 .053 .361 .704

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
White, D.J. 36:07 - 4 17/60 7-10 0- 0 3- 4 10/46 0/36 0/53 0/54 3/34 2/25 6/32 3 1.43
Bassett, Armon 36:04 - 8 12/58 3- 6 1- 3 3- 6 9/45 1/36 0/53 1/52 0/35 1/25 3/31 3 1.01
Gordon, Eric 33:36 + 2 23/57 7-13 0- 4 9-10 17/41 3/24 1/51 2/48 0/31 1/20 3/31 1 1.06
Ellis, Jamarcus 28:03 + 7 2/46 1- 2 0- 3 0- 0 5/38 1/33 1/42 1/41 1/25 2/20 6/28 1 0.40
Crawford, Jordan 23:30 - 6 2/43 1- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/32 0/29 1/36 1/37 0/21 0/16 2/18 1 0.67
Stemler, Lance 19:17 - 1 6/27 0- 1 2- 3 0- 0 4/25 1/21 1/29 0/28 0/20 0/15 2/19 2 1.50
Taber, Kyle 15:09 - 2 0/22 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/16 0/16 0/23 0/19 0/14 1/ 8 0/16 0 --
Thomas, DeAndre 8:11 + 2 4/17 2- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/12 0/ 9 1/13 0/11 0/ 5 1/ 6 0/ 5 3 1.33
TOTALS 40:00 66 21-38 3-13 15-20 51 6/24 5/61 5/58 4/37 8/27 23/36 14 1.09
.553 .231 .750 .250 .082 .086 .108 .296 .639

Efficiency: Wisconsin 1.115, Indiana 1.138
eFG%: Wisconsin 51.6, Indiana 50.0
Substitutions: Wisconsin 28, Indiana 22

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Wisconsin 0-0, Indiana 3-3
Layups/Tips: Wisconsin 12-21, Indiana 4-10
Jumpers: Wisconsin 5-16, Indiana 14-25




The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Looking Forward

I've been a tad busy with some things that have kept me from putting up my thoughts on the win in Columbus on Sunday.  Sadly, I'm not going to do much more than pay lip service here. But don't think that means I don't love that win. I absolutely do. DJ White was once again a beast.  The Hoosiers once again failed to score without him on the court, but that was because he never left it. Jordan Crawford was nothing short of excellent, and I was happy to see Bassett hit some shots. And there was more good work from Kyle Taber. Once again, the team's efficiency margin while he was on the floor was higher than anyone else's on the team.  Good times. In general, I think it's a huge win, that the Hoosiers played very well, and that they looked pleasantly active and disorienting in the 2-3 they played for the whole game.

Unfortunately, I have a bad taste in my mouth about the coaching staff, given all the new information coming out about the NCAA alleging five major violations against Kelvin Sampson's staff. I don't want to think about it, much less write about it.  Grant Wahl has some good thoughts on the subject. If you want to get in a really crappy mood about it, read this typically but appropriate acerbic post. The only reason I even mention it is that I worry about how the news will affect the team tonight.

That's right, Wisconsin comes to town tonight, stinging from a home loss to Purdue. Couple that with the Charlie Foxtrot in Bloomington, and the Badgers seem to have the edge in intangibles. As far as on the court stuff goes, not much has changed since I previewed the matchup just a couple of weeks ago. So check that out for details. The upshot is that Wisconsin is good at stopping what the Hoosiers are good at doing. To come out with a win, I think the Hoosiers will need big games from the likes of Gordon, Bassett, and Crawford, given that they shot horrendously in Madison. Maybe a win tonight will clean some of the bad mojo off of the program.  Well, probably not, but it might clean some of it off of me.  Maybe not that, either. Sigh.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Winning at the Free Throw Line

I was looking over the Indiana vs. Ohio State HD Box Score and a few things struck me.  (Ow.)

  1. D.J. White has been a beast all year, which is stating the obvious and is hardly reason-enough to write a blog post.  However, I think it must be said that not only is he playing some hard-nosed ball, he's managing to stay out of foul trouble.  This has to be attributed to health and conditioning, after struggling with both in seasons past.  The occasional zone helps, even if it hurts my eyes.  Anyway, it's nice to see him post a 40:00 on the minutes played section, as he did against the Buckeyes.DJWhiteMinutes  DJWhiteFoulsSeeing a 40:00 in the box score reminds me of when Mike Davis would never substitute for two of my all time favorite Hoosiers:  Coverdale & Fife, and additionally Jeffries (whom I can never mention without saying that he laid an egg against the no-class Turdapins in the 2002 championship game).
  2. We're seeing the rise of Kyle Taber, even if it's on the wane.  He's not even sure if Sampson is rewarding the former walk-on for working hard, or is dissatisfied with the inconsistent play he's getting out of that position... or both.  Either way, Taber's minutes are up and I've been pretty satisfied with his play (against expectations anyway). TaberMinutes If three data points defines a trend, as Abs is always wont to say, then we're seeing a tapering effect from Taber.  I know both Abs and I are both disciples of the tempo-free movement, but minutes played paints an interesting picture here.
  3. I was looking over at the 2008 scouting report for Indiana to gain a different perspective on the HD box scores that Abs compiles... more of an aggregated viewpoint.  I knew we were doing pretty well defensively, but I was shocked (shocked!!) to find that we have the 3rd best FT % defense in the nation.  You can't coach that!