Down the Stretch They Come...

With their win last night over Michigan State, Wisconsin pretty much assured themselves of at least a share of the Big Ten title.  Oh sure, they could lose one of their two remaining games, but I give that a zero percent chance of happening.  For PTI fans, that's the big squadoosh.  They host terrible Penn State (5-10 conference, 13-14 overall) and then close out on the road against even more terrible Northwestern (1-14 conference, 8-18 overall).

It's a tougher road for Purdue.  They host Northwestern, then travel to Ohio State (8-7 conference, 17-11 overall) and Michigan (5-11 conference, 9-19 overall).  They should win out, but the road game at Ohio State looms as their potential stumbling point.

Indiana has the toughest remaining schedule.  They must travel to Michigan State (10-5 conference, 22-6 overall), host Minnesota (7-8 conference, 17-10 overall), and travel to Penn State.  Clearly the Michigan State game is the test.  The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 7 games... all losses coming on the road.  The only terrible loss was to Penn State.  The others were Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin... the top of the Big Ten.  They've not lost a conference game at the Breslin Center this season.

Here are the Big Ten Standings:

	Big Ten Conference			Overall
School	W-L	PF	PA	W-L	PF	PA	STRK
Wisconsin	14-2	1037	887	24-4	1903	1536	W5
Indiana	13-2	1076	971	24-4	2139	1785	W4
Purdue	13-2	1017	916	22-6	1915	1703	W1
Michigan State	10-5	984	913	22-6	2007	1733	L1
Ohio State	8-7	974	896	17-11	1887	1692	L3
Minnesota	7-8	1002	1012	17-10	1916	1725	L1
Penn State	5-10	922	1052	13-14	1778	1801	W1
Iowa	5-11	883	963	12-17	1633	1682	L2
Michigan	5-11	991	1066	9-19	1798	1925	L1
Illinois	3-12	940	955	11-17	1811	1734	L3
Northwestern	1-14	887	1082	8-18	1645	1783	W1

Big Ten Tempo-Free Stats Updated

We've updated the Big Ten conference stats post through yesterday's games.

Shot Selection

The day this blog posts a statistical analysis as brilliant and beautiful as this effort by Ken Pomeroy on shot selection is the day you should repent because assuredly the end will be nigh.  While I think we put forth some good analysis and stats, I'm often awed by sublime doctrine advanced by both KenPom and John Gasaway.  We are but mere disciples.

And to think, we have been among those pundits decrying the death of the mid-range game.  Alas!

Free Throws and Three Fours

Now that I've had a day for the Ohio State - Indiana game to percolate (HD box), let's talk about it a little. This was a win the Hoosiers had to have to stay in the conference championship race. (Wisconsin has the clear edge there, given their schedule the rest of the way, but that's not the point right now). And the Hoosiers got that win.  It wasn't pretty, but they got it.  Really, though, we couldn't have expected it to be pretty, given the way the Buckeyes play. 

Much has been said in this space about the Ohio State D (OK, so I said it all, but that doesn't change the fact that it's been said), and their numbers are quite good.  Some of that bore itself out on Tuesday, too. The Hoosiers put up worse efficiency numbers on O than is typical for them, and they shot atrociously from beyond the arc.  Ohio State does have the best statistical D in the conference, and they are best at defending both 2- and 3-pointers. I was already to think it was just tough OSU D, and maybe it was, but PostmanE's take made me think a little more about it. He suggested it was just a bad shooting night, and if you look at the numbers it was horrific for Stemler and Gordon. Those two were a combined 1 - 14 on 3's, meaning the rest of the team was a not-great-but-certainly-acceptable 4 - 11. It seemed to me that both of those guys had mostly open looks on their three-balls, but they just couldn't get them to fall. But, the Hoosiers did shoot right on their conference number for two point FG%. So that's a case of the irresistible force of IU's 2-point offense overcoming the immovable object of OSU's 2-point defense. Still, the three point shooting of Stemler and Gordon really hurt the team on O. In fact, Gordon had one of his worst offensive games as a Hoosier this year, posting an ORating of only 80.1 while using an impressive 32% of the team's possessions. Notice I didn't say "of the team's possessions while he was on the floor." That's because, despite his poor shooting and his turnovers, Gordon never sat down. I know that sounds like a criticism of Dakich, but it's not really.  It's just an observation. Clearly, Dakich thought he was making the team better by being out there, and he does play some very good D (he managed 3 steals and 3 defensive boards, both of which are good). And Gordon is an absolute weapon down the stretch. You know he's going to get to the line and hit his FT's, which he did once again against the Buckeyes.

But I don't think all of those missed shots were the key. Granted, if a good percentage of them go in, then IU doesn't have to sweat the outcome of the game at all.  And if you look at the fact that IU went to the live 24 times against the Buckeyes, who are best in the conference at keeping people off the line, then that is clearly a key to the win.  In conference games, OSU's defensive FT Rate is a paltry 16.0. In this game, it was 39.3. Indiana's irresistible force beat OSU's immovable object there.

The other factor isn't so obvious. I was talking with Lawton yesterday and starting to claim that the +/- stat of HD box scores is only useful for guys who sit for a significant amount of time.  I was thinking you might need to sit for 10 minutes to make the number useful. In the case of Gordon, who played the whole game, we have no idea how the team would do without him on the floor.  And really, how much time does it take to make a noticeable impact? It can't be just a few minutes. However, just as I was saying that, I noticed Kosta Koufos's line in the HD box. His +/- was +9. While he was on the floor, Ohio State scored 9 more points than Indiana. That means that the Hoosiers outscore the Buckeyes by 12 when Koufos was on the bench. So Koufos must have sat a lot, right?  Wrong. He was out of the game for only 4:44.

So there you have it, getting to the line and hitting the freebies. 4:44 of bench time for Koufos.  Those were the keys to IU's win over Ohio State. Just like the title of this post says.

Now IU fans need to root for Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan against Purdue and Michigan St., Penn St., and Northwestern against Wisconsin to give the Hoosiers a chance at the Big Ten conference championship and #1 seed in the conference tournament.

Ohio State vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-26-08

Ohio State vs Indiana
2/26/08 7:02 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Ohio State              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Butler, Jamar          40:00  - 3  12/69  3- 4  2- 8  0- 0 12/62  8/50  0/68  2/69  0/36  0/34  3/39   2 1.00
Koufos, Kosta          35:16  + 9  21/64  6-15  2- 3  3- 3 18/56  0/38  2/61  3/60  4/31  4/30  2/34   3 1.08
Turner, Evan           32:52  - 2  13/58  4- 5  1- 4  2- 3  9/52  4/43  2/56  5/56  0/29  1/28  6/32   4 1.25
Lighty, David          32:08  - 7   6/51  1- 2  1- 3  1- 2  5/45  3/40  1/51  1/52  1/27  1/24  3/30   1 1.01
Hunter, Othello        26:06  + 2  12/51  6- 9  0- 0  0- 0  9/41  0/32  0/45  1/45  1/20  2/20  4/25   4 1.33
Diebler, Jon           14:58  + 3   3/29  0- 0  1- 6  0- 0  6/27  0/21  0/29  3/30  1/16  1/16  2/16   3 0.50
Terwilliger, Matt      13:13  - 5   2/18  1- 2  0- 1  0- 0  3/19  0/16  0/21  0/23  1/14  0/12  1/12   1 0.67
Lauderdale, Dallas      5:20  -10   0/ 5  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 8  0/ 8  0/ 9  1/10  0/ 7  1/ 6  0/ 7   0   --
Hill, P.J.              0:02  - 2   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00          69 21-37  7-25  6- 8    62 15/28  5/70 16/71  8/36 12/34 22/39  18 1.05
                                          .568  .280  .750        .536  .071  .225  .222  .353  .564    

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Gordon, Eric           40:00  + 3  17/72  3- 8  1- 8  8- 9 16/61  3/45  3/69  7/68  0/37  3/39  3/34   1 0.84
Bassett, Armon         36:20    0  23/66  3- 3  4- 8  5- 5 11/56  2/45  2/63  2/62  0/33  1/36  3/30   0 1.72
White, D.J.            36:00  + 2  16/63  7-13  0- 0  2- 4 13/57  0/44  1/62  0/59  2/34  4/36  4/31   3 1.07
Ellis, Jamarcus        25:00  + 4   5/48  2- 4  0- 1  1- 2  5/38  1/33  1/44  1/45  0/21  4/25  3/23   1 0.84
Stemler, Lance         22:41  + 7   2/39  1- 1  0- 6  0- 0  7/39  1/32  0/36  0/37  0/24  2/24  4/19   2 0.29
Crawford, Jordan       21:07  + 3   9/44  3- 4  0- 2  3- 4  6/32  2/26  1/38  1/36  0/22  1/22  1/17   1 1.14
Taber, Kyle            11:18  - 5   0/13  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/12  0/11  0/20  0/19  0/ 7  1/ 8  3/11   0 0.00
Thomas, DeAndre         7:31  + 1   0/15  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/10  1/ 8  0/13  2/14  0/ 7  0/ 5  1/ 5   2 0.00
TOTALS                 40:00          72 19-36  5-25 19-24    61 10/24  8/71 13/70  2/37 17/39 22/34  10 0.99
                                          .528  .200  .792        .417  .113  .186  .054  .436  .647    

Efficiency: Ohio State 0.972, Indiana 1.029
eFG%: Ohio State 50.8, Indiana 43.4
Substitutions: Ohio State 31, Indiana 19

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Ohio State 6-6, Indiana 5-5
Layups/Tips: Ohio State 8-11, Indiana 11-21
Jumpers: Ohio State 7-20, Indiana 4-10

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Then and Now

Then

The Hoosiers got a win on the road at Northwestern Saturday night. I haven't written much about it, because I'm not completely sure what to say. I suppose a quick look at the numbers is in order, if for no other reason than to say that, even more than the second Wisconsin game, the two teams' defenses just didn't bother about this game. A look at kenpom's Indiana game stats numbers (sorted by defensive efficiency) shows that it was the worst defensive game Indiana has played all year. However, it was also Northwestern's second worst. On offense, nearly all of Indiana players were stellar. Bassett was excellent, while taking on a go-to guy share of possessions (26%). Jordan Crawford was sublime. Seriously, look at his +/-. I'll wait. DJ White was his normal self despite playing with the flu. Eric Gordon was his normal self, and Kyle Taber had another do no evil game on that end. I'm not going to talk about who played poorly on offense, and I'm not going to talk about anyone's bad +/- numbers, because I don't care. Given the situation with Coach cum Verizon Guy Sampson, I told the Girl that the Hoosiers were likely to go up there and lose. That they managed to pull out a victory, regardless of anything else, was excellent for the team. And for that, Indiana fans should be happy.

Random side note, I was confused a couple of times in the second half about whether IU was running a man or a zone. I even started to holler about why we were going back to the man when it wasn't working (not that the zone really was). Turns out that Dakich had decided to junk it up by running a triangle-and-two. I didn't recognize it at all, and I need to go back to look at it. Dakich claims that defense was key to getting back in the game when IU was down 7 or 9 in the second half.

Now

Tonight the Hoosiers host a dangerous, if struggling, Ohio State team. I did a preview based on whole season stats before the game in Columbus, and I think we can still apply most of that. Last time around, the Hoosiers pulled out a victory by forcing Ohio State to keep the ball outside the arc with an active 2-3 zone, leading the Buckeyes to jack up 27 3's, hitting only 7 of them. More than half of the Buckeye field goal attempts came from beyond the arc, and it just didn't work for them. It's unsurprising that it didn't work, too, since we pointed out in our preview that Ohio State is best at hitting 2's and worst at not so good at hitting 3's. FWIW, Indiana's excellent free throw defense came through for them again, as OSU hit only half of their eight freebies.

On the other end, Indiana managed to get 4 more shots than the buckeyes by turning it over on only 125 of thier possessions. That, and they overcame a stout Buckeye D in hitting more than half of their 2-pointers. Also, they hit every one of the few free throws the Buckeyes gave up.

But that was last time, and I'm supposed to be talking about now. Nevertheless, I think Indiana's defensive game plan last time was sound, given that Ohio State is first in the conference in 2-point FG% and next to last in 3-point FG% (only Michigan is worse). If Indiana can force contested 3's with an active zone again, they could win. However, I have this odd feeling that the program's turmoil almost has to cause a "friction loss" at some point, and it will be interesting to see if the Hoosiers can focus and take care of business at home tonight. On offense, Indiana might as well stick with its strengths and try to make 2's, because OSU has the best defense in the conference, and they are #1 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% D. That may not happen, though, because OSU's opponents attempt 42% of their shots from outside the arc in conference games, more than against any other team. 'T'will be interesting, without question.

Finally, my player to watch tonight is Jamarcus Ellis. It looked to me like he was not completely with the team emotionally or mentally in Evanston on Saturday. Sure, he picked up a silly technical, but it was more that he seemed disinterested in listening to Dakich in huddles and on the sidelines. Much of that is understandable given the situation, but Indiana needs his defense, rebounding, and distribution to be good.

Tempo-Free Stats Updated

We've updated the Big Ten conference stats post with the weekend games. Not a huge difference, but Indiana and Northwestern's efficiency numbers both changed as a result of that no-D squeaker they played on Saturday night.