Showing posts with label Wisconsin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wisconsin. Show all posts

Friday, February 29, 2008

Down the Stretch They Come...

With their win last night over Michigan State, Wisconsin pretty much assured themselves of at least a share of the Big Ten title.  Oh sure, they could lose one of their two remaining games, but I give that a zero percent chance of happening.  For PTI fans, that's the big squadoosh.  They host terrible Penn State (5-10 conference, 13-14 overall) and then close out on the road against even more terrible Northwestern (1-14 conference, 8-18 overall).

It's a tougher road for Purdue.  They host Northwestern, then travel to Ohio State (8-7 conference, 17-11 overall) and Michigan (5-11 conference, 9-19 overall).  They should win out, but the road game at Ohio State looms as their potential stumbling point.

Indiana has the toughest remaining schedule.  They must travel to Michigan State (10-5 conference, 22-6 overall), host Minnesota (7-8 conference, 17-10 overall), and travel to Penn State.  Clearly the Michigan State game is the test.  The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 7 games... all losses coming on the road.  The only terrible loss was to Penn State.  The others were Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin... the top of the Big Ten.  They've not lost a conference game at the Breslin Center this season.

Here are the Big Ten Standings:

Big Ten Conference Overall
School W-L PF PA W-L PF PA STRK
Wisconsin 14-2 1037 887 24-4 1903 1536 W5
Indiana 13-2 1076 971 24-4 2139 1785 W4
Purdue 13-2 1017 916 22-6 1915 1703 W1
Michigan State 10-5 984 913 22-6 2007 1733 L1
Ohio State 8-7 974 896 17-11 1887 1692 L3
Minnesota 7-8 1002 1012 17-10 1916 1725 L1
Penn State 5-10 922 1052 13-14 1778 1801 W1
Iowa 5-11 883 963 12-17 1633 1682 L2
Michigan 5-11 991 1066 9-19 1798 1925 L1
Illinois 3-12 940 955 11-17 1811 1734 L3
Northwestern 1-14 887 1082 8-18 1645 1783 W1

Thursday, February 14, 2008

The Bizarro Game

So last night's matchup between Indiana and Wisconsin (HD box here, albeit with some possession counting oddity) wasn't really a bizarro game. Not everything was opposite.  However, overall, it was opposite of what happened in Madison (thoughts, HD box). In that game, the defenses were absolutely dominant, with both teams registering efficiencies under a point per possession, and Wisonsin's D holding IU to 0.778 PPP. In last night's rematch, the D was an afterthought, and an ineffective one at that.  The offenses did pretty much what they wanted, to the tune of 1.14 PPP for IU and 1.12 for Wisconsin. That's against two of the best defenses in the Big Ten, both of which are in the top 25 in the country!

The thing that is sticking in my craw, overcookin' my grits, really chapping my ass, is one call down the stretch. I know it's petty and futile to talk about the refs, and I believe John Gasaway suggested that it should never be done. However, I have to admit that I was furious with a non-call last night. Looking at the play-by-play, it isn't completely clear which sequence it was, but I believe it was right around 44 seconds left in the game. Trevon Hughes dribbled up from the baseline and was engulfed by the Hoosier D. He picked up his dribble and fell to the floor, and the officials called a held ball, possession arrow Wisconsin. I was hollering at the TV that it was a travel. I'm pretty sure he pivot came up after he fell down. After looking at the replay, it may not have been a travel, but yadambetcha it was a double dribble. Hughes touched the ball with both hands before he fell, but he failed to catch it. The ball then bounced on the floor, and he caught it, before going to the floor. The Badgers ended up scoring on the possession, and those two points equaled their margin of victory. I know that IU had later chances to stop them, but that one stuck with me because I thought it was an obvious call, and it's not like it happened in a dim corner of the court away from the ball. OK, let's move on.  I just had to vent.

That said, this game was a toss-up. Given that neither team could get a stop (even when the other team seemed to double dribble -- sorry, I'll let it go), I thought the team with the last realistic possession would win. Thus, when Hughes fouled Eric Gordon with 17 seconds lost, I told the Girl that it might be good for the Badgers to foul that early (about the same time that analyst Shon Morris said the same thing on TV). Even though the Hoosiers played very good D on that last play, Butch banked in a 3 for the lead. The Hoosiers walked around dazed and eventually got the ball in to Jamarcus Ellis, who did a good job trying to get a winning shot off. The dazed movements after the bank reminded me of Syracuse after Keith Smart hit The Shot in the '87 championship game. Luckily, they've changed the rule since then so the clock doesn't run after the shot goes in. A timeout would have been very handy there, as they could have maybe gotten someone other than shoots-23-percent-on-his-threes Ellis to take the final heave.

Still, while neither team got a lot of stops, the two keys might have been Jason Bohannon, who scored 18 points, all on his 6 of 11 3-point shooting, and the second half shut down of DJ White. The Badgers did an excellent job keeping the ball out of DJ's hands in the second half. DJ ended the game with a stratospheric 147.6 O rating, but he was only able to use 20% of the team's possessions, and that's low for him. DJ's first half offensive numbers were even more wow-ish: O rating of 205.8 on 23% of possessions. Eric Gordon picked up the slack in a big way, using 44% of possessions for the game and still posting a quite good 111.9 O rating. That means that Gordon used an incredible 64% of possessions in the second half, while posting a 108.0 O rating. Those are two workhorse guys on the offensive end. Still, as evidence that Wisconsin severely limited DJ in the second half, he had a 70.1 O rating on 17% of possessions in that period. That's an impressive half time adjustment.

I thought that the Badgers were very smart, both in how they shot Indiana out of that 2-3 zone, and in how they recognized and attacked. Any time Stemler was stuck on Butch in the post, that's where the ball went.  Score. Any time Taber was on Landry at the top of the key, Landry drove. Score. Taber's valuable to the team, but he's not tall enough or big enough to guard Landry one on one.

This is turning into some serious diarrhea of the keyboard, but the Hoosiers were just one play short of a big win last night. Maybe one just has to look at it as karma. The Hoosiers took two tough road games last week, including a double-OT game in which Gordon banked in a three to keep them in it. If they can win the next two against the Spartans and Boilermakers, they'll be in very good shape. If you had offered them 4 out of 5 wins before this brutal stretch, I think they would have taken it.

One last note on the Kelvin Sampson issue. Pat Forde has an interesting article up on the subject, and I think IU might do well to do just what Forde suggests at the end: suspend Sampson until everything is finalized with the NCAA. If the allegations turn out to be incorrect, reinstate him. If they're correct, fire him.  In the interim, let Dan Dakich lead the team. I suggested to the Girl that Dakich might do an OK job last night. I don't know how good at a head coach he is, but there's no indication that he's a cheater or a liar. It might hurt the team's chances for the rest of the season, but it doesn't really punish these players too much for what the coach might have done, and it gives them the chance to do what they can on the court. It also precludes an possible tainting of any success they might have in the postseason.

Bah. Have a good Hallmark Day, everyone.

Wisconsin vs. Indiana HD Box Score 2-13-08

There's something wrong with the Possession counts for this game, since there's a difference of 3. So I need to look into that.  Maybe my software decided counted the possession where Trevon Hughes fell to the floor twice.

Wisconsin vs Indiana
2/13/08 7:06 p.m. at Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Ind.

Wisconsin Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Flowers, Michael 35:37 + 3 15/61 3- 8 3- 4 0- 0 12/57 3/45 0/51 1/54 0/33 2/33 5/23 3 1.25
Landry, Marcus 33:49 - 2 8/57 4-12 0- 1 0- 1 13/51 2/38 0/50 0/49 1/32 2/29 0/23 3 0.59
Bohannon, Jason 31:45 +14 18/64 0- 1 6-11 0- 0 12/52 1/40 1/48 1/50 0/28 0/27 3/22 1 1.50
Hughes, Trevon 29:15 - 5 8/47 1- 2 1- 7 3- 4 9/47 2/38 0/42 3/45 0/29 0/28 0/18 3 0.73
Krabbenhoft, Joe 26:29 - 9 2/33 1- 4 0- 0 0- 0 4/40 0/36 0/37 1/38 0/28 5/26 5/19 2 0.50
Butch, Brian 26:15 - 1 13/40 5- 8 1- 2 0- 0 10/40 0/30 0/35 2/38 0/22 2/24 2/17 2 1.30
Stiemsma, Greg 13:41 + 9 4/32 2- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/23 3/21 0/22 0/22 1/14 1/10 3/10 2 2.00
Leuer, Jon 3:07 + 1 0/ 6 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 1/ 5 0/ 4 0/ 5 0/ 4 0/ 4 0/ 3 0/ 3 0 0.00
TOTALS 40:00 68 16-37 11-26 3- 5 63 11/27 1/58 9/61 2/38 13/36 19/27 16 1.04
.432 .423 .600 .407 .017 .148 .053 .361 .704

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
White, D.J. 36:07 - 4 17/60 7-10 0- 0 3- 4 10/46 0/36 0/53 0/54 3/34 2/25 6/32 3 1.43
Bassett, Armon 36:04 - 8 12/58 3- 6 1- 3 3- 6 9/45 1/36 0/53 1/52 0/35 1/25 3/31 3 1.01
Gordon, Eric 33:36 + 2 23/57 7-13 0- 4 9-10 17/41 3/24 1/51 2/48 0/31 1/20 3/31 1 1.06
Ellis, Jamarcus 28:03 + 7 2/46 1- 2 0- 3 0- 0 5/38 1/33 1/42 1/41 1/25 2/20 6/28 1 0.40
Crawford, Jordan 23:30 - 6 2/43 1- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/32 0/29 1/36 1/37 0/21 0/16 2/18 1 0.67
Stemler, Lance 19:17 - 1 6/27 0- 1 2- 3 0- 0 4/25 1/21 1/29 0/28 0/20 0/15 2/19 2 1.50
Taber, Kyle 15:09 - 2 0/22 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0/16 0/16 0/23 0/19 0/14 1/ 8 0/16 0 --
Thomas, DeAndre 8:11 + 2 4/17 2- 3 0- 0 0- 0 3/12 0/ 9 1/13 0/11 0/ 5 1/ 6 0/ 5 3 1.33
TOTALS 40:00 66 21-38 3-13 15-20 51 6/24 5/61 5/58 4/37 8/27 23/36 14 1.09
.553 .231 .750 .250 .082 .086 .108 .296 .639

Efficiency: Wisconsin 1.115, Indiana 1.138
eFG%: Wisconsin 51.6, Indiana 50.0
Substitutions: Wisconsin 28, Indiana 22

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Wisconsin 0-0, Indiana 3-3
Layups/Tips: Wisconsin 12-21, Indiana 4-10
Jumpers: Wisconsin 5-16, Indiana 14-25




The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Looking Forward

I've been a tad busy with some things that have kept me from putting up my thoughts on the win in Columbus on Sunday.  Sadly, I'm not going to do much more than pay lip service here. But don't think that means I don't love that win. I absolutely do. DJ White was once again a beast.  The Hoosiers once again failed to score without him on the court, but that was because he never left it. Jordan Crawford was nothing short of excellent, and I was happy to see Bassett hit some shots. And there was more good work from Kyle Taber. Once again, the team's efficiency margin while he was on the floor was higher than anyone else's on the team.  Good times. In general, I think it's a huge win, that the Hoosiers played very well, and that they looked pleasantly active and disorienting in the 2-3 they played for the whole game.

Unfortunately, I have a bad taste in my mouth about the coaching staff, given all the new information coming out about the NCAA alleging five major violations against Kelvin Sampson's staff. I don't want to think about it, much less write about it.  Grant Wahl has some good thoughts on the subject. If you want to get in a really crappy mood about it, read this typically but appropriate acerbic post. The only reason I even mention it is that I worry about how the news will affect the team tonight.

That's right, Wisconsin comes to town tonight, stinging from a home loss to Purdue. Couple that with the Charlie Foxtrot in Bloomington, and the Badgers seem to have the edge in intangibles. As far as on the court stuff goes, not much has changed since I previewed the matchup just a couple of weeks ago. So check that out for details. The upshot is that Wisconsin is good at stopping what the Hoosiers are good at doing. To come out with a win, I think the Hoosiers will need big games from the likes of Gordon, Bassett, and Crawford, given that they shot horrendously in Madison. Maybe a win tonight will clean some of the bad mojo off of the program.  Well, probably not, but it might clean some of it off of me.  Maybe not that, either. Sigh.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Indiana vs. Wisconsin HD Box Score 1-31-08


Indiana vs Wisconsin
01/31/08 8 p.m at Kohl Center - Madison, Wis.

Indiana Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
White, D.J. 37:30 -11 22/49 7-13 0- 0 8-10 13/51 0/38 0/58 4/58 1/36 7/33 10/42 3 1.24
Ellis, Jamarcus 37:27 - 8 4/49 2- 5 0- 1 0- 0 6/50 2/44 0/59 1/58 1/35 2/32 11/41 4 0.67
Gordon, Eric 35:45 - 9 16/47 4- 7 2- 7 2- 2 14/49 3/35 2/58 3/55 0/36 2/31 2/42 2 1.07
Bassett, Armon 30:15 - 7 2/41 1- 2 0- 5 0- 0 7/45 2/38 0/50 0/49 0/26 0/29 1/33 2 0.29
Stemler, Lance 25:41 + 2 3/35 0- 0 1- 6 0- 0 6/36 1/30 0/43 0/40 1/23 0/23 3/32 2 0.50
Crawford, Jordan 16:17 -11 0/14 0- 3 0- 1 0- 0 4/20 0/16 1/23 1/24 0/16 0/16 2/18 1 0.00
Thomas, DeAndre 6:02 - 6 0/ 2 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 1/ 6 0/ 5 1/ 9 1/ 9 0/ 6 0/ 6 0/ 7 4 0.00
White, Mike 6:01 - 6 2/ 6 1- 2 0- 0 0- 0 2/ 7 0/ 5 0/10 2/10 0/ 8 0/ 4 0/ 5 2 1.00
Ratliff, A.J. 4:58 - 9 0/ 2 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 1/ 6 0/ 5 0/ 5 0/ 7 0/ 4 0/ 6 0/ 5 3 0.00
TOTALS 40:00 49 15-33 3-21 10-12 54 8/18 4/64 13/63 3/38 11/36 30/45 23 0.82
.455 .143 .833 .444 .063 .206 .079 .306 .667

Wisconsin Min +/- Pts 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A FGA A Stl TO Blk OR DR PF PPWS
Hughes, Trevon 37:13 +15 16/60 2- 9 1- 6 9-10 15/54 3/39 2/57 2/59 0/30 0/42 1/33 1 0.81
Flowers, Michael 36:22 +10 10/58 3- 5 0- 4 4- 4 9/51 0/42 1/58 0/58 0/30 2/40 3/30 2 0.92
Butch, Brian 32:39 +11 8/42 1- 7 2- 3 0- 1 10/37 1/27 1/42 0/41 0/23 1/25 4/20 2 0.76
Landry, Marcus 31:33 +20 14/56 6- 9 0- 1 2- 3 10/51 0/41 0/53 3/54 0/28 2/38 9/34 2 1.23
Krabbenhoft, Joe 31:22 +11 6/48 2- 2 0- 1 2- 5 3/44 5/41 1/47 0/47 0/24 6/34 6/29 3 1.12
Bohannon, Jason 26:23 + 4 4/36 1- 2 0- 5 2- 2 7/37 1/30 1/41 0/42 0/22 0/33 1/26 2 0.50
Stiemsma, Greg 9:20 - 6 4/10 2- 4 0- 0 0- 1 4/16 0/12 0/12 1/14 2/ 8 4/13 1/ 8 2 0.89
TOTALS 40:00 62 17-38 3-20 19-26 58 10/20 6/63 6/64 2/33 15/45 25/36 14 0.88
.447 .150 .731 .500 .095 .094 .061 .333 .694

Efficiency: Indiana 0.778, Wisconsin 0.969
Substitutions: Indiana 22, Wisconsin 22

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Indiana 2-2, Wisconsin 1-1
Layups/Tips: Indiana 8-12, Wisconsin 14-25
Jumpers: Indiana 5-19, Wisconsin 3-12


The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Preview: Indiana vs. Wisconsin

This is what we've been waiting for: a matchup between two Big Ten heavyweights. Indiana and Wisconsin face off tonight in Madison with both teams coming off of tough losses this past weekend. This game should tell us a lot, as both teams seem to be lacking much data in the quality win category, although the Badgers' win at Texas was quite impressive.

I said this was a matchup of heavyweights, and it certainly is, as the game features two of the conference's top 3 offenses and defenses. Indiana has gotten a lot of national pub because of super-frosh Eric Gordon (who hurt his non-shooting wrist in practice this week), but Wisonsin has been a bit under the radar, despite being #13 in both polls. As Ken Pomeroy pointed out, given the Badgers' stellar defense, they might be undervalued and under-rated.

But let's not be too abstract. Let's talk about how these teams stack up against each other.

When Wisconsin has the Ball
The Badger O is no slouch (and now I have Caddyshack quotes in my head) on its own merits, being the 3rd most efficient O in the conference. They are a team that seems to be pretty good, but not excellent, in almost every statistical category offensively. The one place where they do excel is in getting offensive rebounds. That big front line of theirs hits the glass hard on missed baskets, and they come up with a lot of them. Ultimately, they make most of their hay inside the arc, as they attempt very few 3-pointers.

Those qualities collide with Indiana's strengths on defense, which are defending 2-pointers and keeping teams off of the offensive glass.

So the battle of the boards could prove critical to Wisconsin's offense, given that Indiana is likely to force a good number of missed Wisconsin shots. It seems like the fact that Indiana's opponents make only 62% of their free throws feeds their defensive efficiency, which might give Wisconsin a slight edge, given that the Badgers don't go to the line a whole lot.

When Indiana has the Ball
Indiana comes in with a slightly more efficient offense than Wisconsin's. The Hoosiers are good at making shots from all over, but they excel inside the arc. They also get a ton of their offense from the free throw line, getting there more than all but 12 teams in the country. Indiana is also pretty adept at grabbing their own misses.

Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, the Badgers's D is even more stingy than their own, ranking 3rd in the country overall. Even worse news for IU is that Wisconsin's players play that good D by contesting lots of shots, keeping their opponents off the glass, and not sending their opponents to the line.

So, much like in the UConn-Indiana game, Wisconsin's defensive strengths stand directly opposed to Indiana's offensive strengths, espeically when it somes to defending 2-pointers and not fouling, ranking 12th and 9th nationally in those categories, respectively.

What it all Means
I think it means that Indiana will be hard-pressed to win this game. That's not a surprise, as it's pretty hard to win road games all over the country (just ask Kansas). The Hoosiers might be looking to "right a lot of wrongs tonight," and the need to make up for a tough home loss to UConn might help them, but I don't think it will be enough.