Arkansas vs. Indiana HD Box Score 3-21-08

Arkansas vs Indiana
3/21/08 9:39pm at RBC Center, Raleigh NC

Arkansas                Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Weems, Sonny           37:36  +16  31/82  9-10  3- 4  4- 4 14/47  1/33  2/60  2/59  0/36  3/24  2/35   1 1.95
Beverley, Patrick      36:39  +10  12/79  1- 3  2- 4  4- 8  7/44  3/37  2/60  0/61  0/38  0/23  5/33   2 1.11
Ervin, Gary            36:38  +14   7/82  0- 1  0- 2  7- 8  3/43  7/40  0/61  3/62  0/36  0/21  3/34   3 1.03
Townes, Darian         33:06  +16  17/71  6-11  0- 0  5- 6 11/44  2/33  0/50  2/48  0/31  4/21  8/31   1 1.23
Hill, Steven           17:57  +13   2/41  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/18  0/16  0/32  1/34  3/20  1/ 9  1/20   3 1.00
Thomas, Charles        11:09  + 3   8/30  1- 3  0- 0  6- 7  3/12  0/ 9  0/22  2/23  0/13  1/ 7  4/11   3 1.26
Hunter, Vincent        10:37  - 2   3/19  0- 0  1- 2  0- 0  2/11  1/ 9  0/17  0/16  0/10  0/ 5  0/10   3 1.50
Washington, Michael     8:16  - 1   0/14  0- 1  0- 1  0- 0  2/11  0/ 9  0/14  1/14  1/ 8  0/ 8  1/ 9   2 0.00
Welsh, Stefan           6:37  + 1   6/12  0- 0  2- 4  0- 0  4/10  0/ 6  0/12  1/11  0/ 8  0/ 7  1/ 8   0 1.50
Rakestraw, Nate         0:40    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  1/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2   0   --
Britt, Marcus           0:40    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 2   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00          86 18-31  8-17 26-33    48 14/26  5/66 12/67  4/40  9/25 25/39  18 1.35
                                          .581  .471  .788        .538  .076  .179  .100  .360  .641    

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Gordon, Eric           37:32  -10   8/72  3- 9  0- 6  2- 6 15/61  1/46  3/63  3/63  1/29  2/36  1/24   2 0.45
Bassett, Armon         36:39  -10  21/69  2- 2  5- 7  2- 2  9/57  7/48  2/61  3/60  0/29  1/33  2/23   1 2.11
White, D.J.            33:21  - 4  22/64 10-16  0- 0  2- 4 16/53  0/37  1/51  0/52  1/27  2/31  7/20   3 1.23
Ellis, Jamarcus        24:21  -10   6/43  0- 2  2- 2  0- 0  4/41  1/37  1/39  0/40  0/17  1/26  2/16   4 1.50
Stemler, Lance         22:44  -12   9/40  0- 1  3- 5  0- 0  6/37  0/31  0/40  0/39  0/18  1/21  0/18   5 1.50
Crawford, Jordan       22:17  -17   0/38  0- 3  0- 2  0- 0  5/35  4/30  1/40  0/40  1/19  0/23  2/13   3 0.00
Thomas, DeAndre        14:35  - 3   4/19  2- 6  0- 0  0- 0  6/20  1/14  0/22  3/21  0/11  3/14  1/10   4 0.67
Taber, Kyle             5:35  - 3   2/13  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 7  0/ 6  0/ 8  0/ 9  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 0   1 2.00
White, Mike             1:13    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 1   0   --
McGee, Brandon          1:00  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 0   0 0.00
Ahlfeld, Adam           0:40    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  1/ 1  0/ 0  1/ 2  0/ 0   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00          72 18-40 10-24  6-12    64 14/28  8/67 10/66  3/31 14/39 16/25  24 1.03
                                          .450  .417  .500        .500  .119  .152  .097  .359  .640    

Efficiency: Arkansas 1.284, Indiana 1.091
eFG%: Arkansas 62.5, Indiana 51.6
Substitutions: Arkansas 39, Indiana 30

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Arkansas 3-3, Indiana 1-2
Layups/Tips: Arkansas 5-13, Indiana 9-19
Jumpers: Arkansas 10-15, Indiana 8-19

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Searching for Identity

During the Big Ten conference schedule, the Hoosiers established pretty clearly the areas in which they excelled. A gander at the Big Ten tempo-free stats shows that the Hoosiers were second best in the conference in 2-point FG% (only Ohio State was better) first in free throw rate, first in free throw percentage, and first in defensive rebounding. So they hit their shots in side the arc, got to the line (where they were deadly efficient), and kept their opponents from getting offensive rebounds.

Recently, though, either those strengths deserted IU, or Indiana got away from them. In their loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament (HD Box here), Indiana still got to the free throw line a ton, but they didn't hit them with anywhere near their normal accuracy, hitting just 67.6% in that game when they connected at a 77.9% clip during the conference season. Especially different, though, were the two-point shooting and defensive rebounding. IU hit a paltry 41.7% of their 2's (and an atrocious 1 of 14 3's), and they allowed Minnesota to rebound an incredible 43% of their own misses. When you compare that to the conference season number of 28%, something was clearly amiss.

But there's no point in nattering on about such things. Everyone in the country probably knows that there's something amiss with the team. I will confess something, though. After all the missed free throws at the end of the game, when DJ finally hit the freebie to give IU the lead with just over a second left, I told the girl, "IU doesn't deserve to win this game. If Minnesota hits some ridiculous shot to win, I won't be surprised." Well, the only thing everyone in the country knows better than that something is amiss with the Hoosiers is that Blake Hoffarber hit an absurd left-handed almost hook/prayer to beat both the buzzer and the Hoosiers. The Girl was not the least bit pleased with me, claiming that I jinxed the team. If that's the case, please accept my apology.

But I say again that we should dwell on something else.  How about Indiana's NCAA game against Arkansas? First, a look at the kenpom scouting reports (IU Ark) makes me wish that I had full tempo-free conference stats for all conferences at my disposal, because both teams numbers are significantly worse for conference games only. The overall numbers predict a 73-69 IU win in 70 possessions, while the conference numbers predict a 70 - 69 IU win in 67 possessions. Either way, a close game is predicted by the numbers.  So let's look at some details.

When Arkansas Has the Ball

Arkansas' biggest strength on O seems to be their offensive rebounding, as the Razorbacks rank 21st in the country in O rebounding percentage. Couple that with their 48th best 2-point field goal percentage, and it seems that they are pretty strong inside. That's not really surprising, as the Razorbacks boast 5 players on their roster at or about 6'8". Four of those are 6'10" or better. That height has more of an impact on defense, according to Ken Pomeroy, but it plays out some on O, too. These Arkansas strengths lie in direct opposition to Indiana's defensive strengths. We mentioned above that IU was #1 in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding, and they are also 28th in the country on the overall season in that category. The Hoosiers are also 44th best in the country on the season in 2-point FG% defense. So it will be interesting to see how those elements play out.

The Arkansas offense turns the ball over quite a bit, shoots poorly beyond the arc, and doesn't get to the free throw line much, but the Hoosiers D rarely forces turnovers, doesn't defend 3's terribly well (but not terribly poorly, either). The Hoosiers are pretty good at keeping opponents off the free throw line, though, and they are excellent at defending the free throws they do give up.  ;-)

When Indiana Has the Ball

Interestingly, given their height, is that the Razorbacks are not especially adept at defending 2-point field goals. That seems even odder when you note that they are 13th best in the country at blocking shots. Furthermore, Arkansas is pretty middle of the road at keeping opponents off the free throw line. What the Arkansas defense excels at with all of that height, aside from blocking shots, is defending 3-pointers. All of those factors seem to play into the hands of the Indiana team we saw play throughout most of the Big Ten season, as 2-point shooting and free throws are the best pieces of Indiana's O.

However, the only other tall, shot-blocking defense the Hoosiers have played was UConn, and that didn't go their way. Still, UConn was good at stopping 2's but not 3's, and Indiana doesn't shoot a whole lot of 3's.

Really, the way the teams' strengths and weaknesses align, it seems like the Hoosiers should have the advantage.  But that's only if the team we saw play for most of the season shows up. If the team that has been frequently ineffective since the beginning of the Dakich era shows up, Indiana won't have to worry about how they match up with North Carolina.

What Exactly is a Hilltopper?

Watching the Drake - Western Kentucky game today, the Girl was looking at the Western Kentucky mascot and asking me what the hell it was supposed to be. After I said they were the Hilltoppers, the Girl indicated that she thought the big red blob might more closely resemble a placenta. Be they Hilltoppers or Placentas, Western Kentucky had to enjoy winning on the first buzzer beater of the tournament. In OT no less. Marvelous game! Madness, how we love ye!

S.O.S.

Forgive me for this NFL post during a time where we are all preparing to descend into madness.  March Madness, that is.

The NFL won't announce their schedule until April, but they have already determined the opponents.  Therefore, we can know the 2008 strength of schedule.  It's derived from the win/loss records of the 2007 season.  Of course there is the standard disclaimer that past performance does not guarantee future returns.  However, a few things leap out at me that cannot go unsaid.

Of primary concern (to me) is that the Colts have the second toughest schedule.  Partisan as I am, it seems they always rate in the top 10.  In fact, they had the 5th toughest in 2007.  No doubt that perennial playoff appearances and division titles will do that.  However, in stark contrast, observe the 18-1 Patriots.  They have the easiest schedule.  Ugh.  How can that be?  Thank the AFC East for being so terrible.  Parity?  What parity?

Also, note how awful the AFC West is.  The Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos have the 2nd - 4th easiest schedules, while the Chiefs have the 7th easiest.  Are they really so bad that playing intra-divisional games would dilute their schedule so horribly?  No, but do also note that they play the AFC East this year, so you have two terrible divisions paired together, each dragging the other deeper into futility.  It's very elegant in it's inanity.

I don't think it's much of reach to project the Patriots and Chargers to be the division winners... even 6 months before the season starts.  Further, I'll project them as the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC, respectively.  I don't think it's that much of a reach.  New England had the 3rd toughest schedule in 2007 and finished one game short of perfect.  With the easiest schedule in 2008?  Let's hope they drop one to the Colts, the Chargers, or maybe Pittsburgh, lest we be subject to repeat of last year's breathless gushing by the collective punditry.

San Diego is really the gamble for the #2 seed, but I think an educated bet.  It hinges on the AFC South and the AFC North winners, and how bloodied they when they secure their division titles.  The AFC South occupies 4 of the 8 toughest schedules (2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th) and the AFC North possess 4 of the 9 toughest schedules (1st, 5th, 7th, 9th).  Since both divisions clog the top of the projected toughest schedules, it's not a reach to say they're likely to finish in the #3 and #4 spots for the conference.  I hope I'm wrong.

Minnesota vs. Indiana HD Box Score 3-14-08

Minnesota vs Indiana
Big Ten Tournament
3/14/08 9:26pm EDT at Conseco Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN

Minnesota               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
McKenzie, Lawrence     36:34  - 1  15/56  1- 4  3- 5  4- 4  9/53  0/44  1/53  3/54  0/34  1/35  4/37   4 1.38
Westbrook, Lawrence    34:30  - 8   7/45  1- 6  1- 4  2- 2 10/50  3/40  0/49  4/52  0/33  0/34  4/35   2 0.64
Williams, Jonathan     29:29  - 3   3/40  0- 3  0- 0  3- 4  3/37  1/34  0/46  1/47  0/29  0/26  4/34   5 0.61
Hoffarber, Blake       25:52  - 4   5/33  1- 4  1- 3  0- 0  7/32  1/25  0/42  2/43  0/23  3/23  2/27   0 0.71
Johnson, Damian        23:11  +16  17/40  5- 8  1- 3  4- 4 11/37  1/26  1/33  0/32  1/14  4/23  2/23   5 1.32
Nolen, Al              20:57  +12   2/36  0- 1  0- 2  2- 2  3/29  3/26  0/29  0/30  0/15  0/17  2/20   1 0.51
Coleman, Dan           12:54  + 1   6/24  3- 6  0- 1  0- 0  7/22  0/15  0/17  1/20  1/16  3/13  1/16   4 0.86
Busch, Travis          11:39  - 6   2/16  1- 3  0- 1  0- 0  4/15  2/11  0/19  1/19  0/12  0/11  0/10   2 0.50
Abu-Shamala, Jamal      4:52  - 2   2/ 5  1- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/ 5  0/ 3  0/ 7  0/ 8  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 3   0 1.00
TOTALS                 40:00          59 13-37  6-19 15-16    56 11/19  2/62 13/61  2/36 16/37 26/41  23 0.93
                                          .351  .316  .938        .579  .032  .213  .056  .432  .634    

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
White, D.J.            39:32  - 1  23/58  6-13  0- 0 11-17 13/50  0/37  0/60  0/58  4/36  5/41  8/36   1 1.09
Bassett, Armon         38:28  - 1   6/56  0- 4  1- 5  3- 4  9/48  3/39  3/60  0/57  0/34  2/40  3/35   3 0.55
Gordon, Eric           37:06  + 3  16/57  4- 7  0- 6  8-12 13/46  2/33  0/57  5/55  0/36  1/36  0/32   2 0.86
Crawford, Jordan       28:34  +10   9/45  4- 8  0- 1  1- 2  9/39  0/30  0/43  0/43  1/22  3/31  3/27   1 0.90
Taber, Kyle            17:18  - 6   2/26  0- 0  0- 0  2- 2  0/17  0/17  0/26  1/26  2/20  0/15  2/20   1 2.11
Thomas, DeAndre        16:18  +16   2/26  1- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/25  2/21  2/25  0/24  1/14  2/18  1/14   5 0.50
Ellis, Jamarcus        16:06  -15   0/21  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/17  1/16  0/25  1/22  0/19  1/15  3/13   4 0.00
White, Mike             3:23  -10   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/ 2   0   --
Stemler, Lance          3:10  - 1   0/ 1  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 4  0/ 6  0/ 3  0/ 4  1/ 6   0 0.00
TOTALS                 40:00          58 15-36  1-14 25-37    50  8/16  5/61  7/62  8/37 15/41 21/37  17 0.86
                                          .417  .071  .676        .500  .082  .113  .216  .366  .568    

Efficiency: Minnesota 0.967, Indiana 0.935
eFG%: Minnesota 39.3, Indiana 33.0
Substitutions: Minnesota 26, Indiana 23

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Minnesota 1-1, Indiana 1-1
Layups/Tips: Minnesota 8-17, Indiana 14-17
Jumpers: Minnesota 5-19, Indiana 3-18

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Injury Report: Attacked by a Toilet Door

A Manchester United player apparently was felled by a toilet stall door after a match last week.  Apparently the door broke loose when he pushed on it and subsequently fell on him.  Of the two or three blogs posts I've seen referencing the incident, I love Jon's opening the best.  As he says:

After helping Manchester United dump Lyon from the UEFA Champions League last week, Scottish midfielder Darren Fletcher was heading to take one himself when he was a victim of a vicious attack - by a toilet door.

It required stitches and you can imagine that it must have really smarted... but not as much as one's pride once the news got out.

Purgatory, Tennessee

It was clear to most observers that the Colts were going to sign only one of their free agent guards this offseason.  The consideration was purely economic, and the only question was whether it would be Ryan Lilja or Jake Scott.  Some even suggested that it was a question of whomever signed first, which smacks of hapless ignorance considering Bill Polian's prudence as the Colts President & GM.

Lilja	Scott

The Colts chose Lilja (or, true enough, he signed first, if you must).  Now Scott has landed himself a surprisingly lucrative deal with the Titans.  Scott is certainly a quality player.  He never missed a game due to injury with the Colts, and he showed great versatility in playing multiple positions on the line.  However, I'm not convinced he's a good fit within Tennessee's offensive philosophy (moving target that it is).  While I liked Scott, I think Tennessee overpaid... especially when you consider that he'll be protecting Vince Young, who is decidedly not a pocket-passer.  Perhaps they assign more value to his run blocking, although he'll need to clear bigger holes for fat LenDale White (comically listed at 235 on his NFL.com bio).

However, the bigger question to me is why the Titans are collecting former Colts.  By my count, they signed David Thornton (2006), Ben Hartsock (2006), Gilbert Gardner (2007), Corey Simon (2007), and Nick Harper (2007).  Of those, Thornton and Harper were the only worthwhile signings.  Gardner was horribly disappointing for the Colts and has zero impact, nor playing time with the Titans.  Ben Hartsock was purely mediocre, and didn't last.  He now is with Atlanta.

The most bizarre ex-Colt signing was that of Simon.  Following knee surgery, he had a known, but at the time undisclosed illness (polyarthritis) that was so bad the Colts placed him on the non-football illness/injury list, then terminated his contract after he failed his physical.  Grievances were filed by both parties, and it was pretty clear that Simon's playing days were over... it was just a question of how much money he was owed on his way out.  Tennessee, blinded by his horseshoe, had a different interpretation and promptly signed him.  There he would play 4 games, amass a single tackle (assisted, not solo), and abruptly retire.  It must have been a glorious tackle.

Now that the Colts are preparing to move into their new digs at Lucas Oil Stadium, they're selling off the RCA Dome one seat at a time.  I suspect Jeff Fisher et al are looking to complete their master plan of reconstituting the 2004 Colts... player by player, and perhaps inch by inch.  Looking at the pricing... it will cost them.

Corey Simon & Gilbert Gardner sat here!!!

 

How will this impact the Colts?  No line position is unimportant, but I'd think Howard Mudd would much rather replace the right side than the blind side.  As Deshawn Zombie says:

Howard Mudd will invariably turn some 4th round pick from Fartville State and create a serviceable guard out of him.

How long will that guard play for the Colts before Tennessee signs him, and how much would you like to see him introduce himself on Monday Night Football as hailing from Fartville State?

Big Ten Tempo-Free Stats Updated

We've posted the tempo-free Big Ten stats through the end of the regular season. We'll have to see whether we include the tournament numbers moving forward, but these encompass the entire conference slate.

Indiana vs. Penn State HD Box Score 3-9-08

Indiana vs Penn State
3/9/08 2:00 p.m. at State College, Pa.

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Gordon, Eric           43:19  - 3  26/62  4- 8  4-16  6- 7 24/56  3/32  0/68  5/69  0/39  2/39  3/48   1 0.95
White, D.J.            41:39  - 6  20/57  8-11  0- 0  4- 6 11/54  0/43  1/63  2/64  0/38  4/38  8/45   3 1.44
Crawford, Jordan       41:24  - 5   5/60  0- 3  1- 5  2- 2  8/54  5/46  1/63  6/65  1/35  0/38  9/42   4 0.56
Bassett, Armon         41:00  + 1   8/60  1- 1  2-12  0- 0 13/54  3/41  1/60  2/62  0/37  0/38  4/42   3 0.62
Taber, Kyle            30:55  + 3   3/43  1- 1  0- 0  1- 2  1/38  2/37  1/46  2/46  2/28  5/27  5/33   1 1.54
Stemler, Lance         21:38  - 7   0/31  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/30  1/30  1/36  0/35  0/15  0/18  4/25   2   --
Thomas, DeAndre         4:37  - 3   2/ 7  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 4  0/ 3  1/ 8  0/ 8  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 4   0 2.00
McGee, Brandon          0:24    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1   0   --
TOTALS                 45:00          64 15-25  7-33 13-17    58 14/22  6/73 17/73  3/39 12/40 33/48  14 0.97
                                          .600  .212  .765        .636  .082  .233  .077  .300  .688    

Penn State              Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Battle, Talor          42:30  + 5  10/67  1- 5  1-10  5- 8 15/64  5/49  2/68  2/66  0/24  0/44  6/38   1 0.53
Jackson, David         33:21  + 3  13/49  4- 6  1- 3  2- 4  9/50  1/41  0/51  1/53  0/16  2/38  8/33   1 1.19
Brooks, Jeff           31:21  - 2  12/46  6- 8  0- 1  0- 0  9/47  2/38  0/48  2/46  0/15  3/30  3/26   2 1.33
Pringle, Stanley       29:12  - 1   9/43  0- 6  2- 6  3- 6 12/42  2/30  0/45  1/45  0/12  1/31  5/30   4 0.61
Morrissey, Danny       28:22  +12   8/47  1- 2  2- 5  0- 0  7/43  2/36  1/45  0/43  0/21  0/33  2/28   1 1.14
Jones, Andrew          24:37  + 7   6/36  3- 7  0- 0  0- 1  7/38  0/31  0/38  0/38  0/12  5/28  1/24   4 0.80
Walker, Mike           18:17  + 4   3/26  0- 2  1- 3  0- 0  5/28  0/23  0/27  0/27  0/14  1/21  0/12   0 0.60
Hassell, Brandon       17:18  - 8   7/26  3- 3  0- 0  1- 1  3/23  1/20  3/28  2/27  0/11  1/15  1/ 9   4 2.01
TOTALS                 45:00          68 18-39  7-28 11-20    67 13/25  6/73 10/73  0/25 15/48 28/40  17 0.89
                                          .462  .250  .550        .520  .082  .137  .000  .313  .700    

Efficiency: Indiana 0.877, Penn State 0.932
eFG%: Indiana 44.0, Penn State 42.5
Substitutions: Indiana 19, Penn State 20

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Indiana 1-1, Penn State 2-2
Layups/Tips: Indiana 11-11, Penn State 9-17
Jumpers: Indiana 4-13, Penn State 8-20

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

Stats Update

We've once again updated the Big Ten tempo-free stats post, with data through 3/6/2008. We've also added some more data, just in case you're interested. Also, we're putting a sticky link to that page over in the sidebar so you can get back there more easily.

Ask and Receive

Yesterday, I suggested that Indiana needed to figure out how to play some D in their game against Minnesota (HD box). And figure it out they did, holding the Gophers to a mere 0.887 points per possession. While Minnesota is no offensive juggernaut, that was an excellent defensive performance. I don't know if it was that the Hoosiers finally recognized that Dan Dakich is the head coach now, or if it was something else, but they should try to remember what it was and do more of it.

Looking at the play-by-play, it's clear that the Hoosiers salted this game away by getting to the free throw line and hitting them down the stretch. Sure, Bassett hit a huge 3 (on nice drive and kick from Gordon), DJ hit a jumper, and Gordon had a layup, but, after the last tie at 48-48, Indiana reeled off a 14 - 2 run to put the game out of Minnesota's reach. Half of those 14 points came from the line. Gordon also scored 7 of the points in that run (and 20 for the game), proving once again that he is an absolute weapon down the stretch in games.  However, he was not the player of the game for IU last night. 

DJ White had another very good game last night. He wasn't able to rebound as well as he normally does, but he was still a beast, posting a 125.6 O rating while using a less-than-typical-for-him 23% of the team's possessions while he was on the floor.  That slightly smaller usage can be attributed to Minnesota running a 3-2 zone for most of the night to keep it out of his hands. Granted, DJ still put up 20 big points, but he was not the player of the game for the Hoosiers.

The player of the game for IU last night was none other than Jamarcus Ellis, the same player whom I had suggested might not be completely on board with the new coaching regime. He was marvelous last night.  He only used 14% of possessions on the offensive end while he was on the floor, but he was deadly efficient with them, putting up a 159.8 O rating. Also, he was a terror on the glass on a night when Minnesota worked hard to keep DJ from getting rebounds. Ellis pulled down 17% of possible offensive rebounds and 33% of possible defensive rebounds, both of which are excellent numbers. But I believe that Ellis's real value to the team lies on the defensive end. While thinking about that, I played with some of the HD box score numbers to figure out how the team did on offense and defense while players were on the floor and off of it. Sure, the +/- column shows how the team did overall, and Ellis's +/- is appropriately the highest on the team.  But we can break it down a little more, and here's how it breaks down for Ellis:

	O Eff	D Eff	Eff Margin
On floor	113.0	77.8	35.2
Off floor	100.0	162.5	-62.5
Difference	13.0	-84.7	97.7

 

Remember that smaller numbers are better when talking about defensive efficiency. Thus, those numbers show that, while Ellis had a positive impact on the team's offense, his impact on the defense was much, much bigger. Goodonya, Jamarcus Ellis!

Overall, that game was just what the Hoosiers needed. If they can pull out a road win against scrappy Penn State on Sunday, and both Wisconsin and Purdue win their last conference games (in which they'll be prohibitive favorites), Indiana will have the #2 seed in the conference tournament.

Minnesota vs. Indiana HD Box Score 3-5-08

Minnesota vs Indiana
03/05/08 7 p.m. at Bloomington, Ind. (Assembly Hall)

Minnesota               Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Coleman, Dan           36:38  -18  14/46  4-10  2- 3  0- 0 13/45  0/32  0/58  2/58  3/32  2/31  6/29   4 1.08
McKenzie, Lawrence     29:55  -20  22/42  2- 5  4- 9  6-11 14/35  2/21  0/48  4/49  0/28  1/23  0/26   3 1.14
Williams, Jonathan     25:47  - 8   6/33  3- 4  0- 0  0- 2  4/32  0/28  0/38  3/37  0/18  0/21  2/21   3 1.21
Johnson, Damian        25:42    0   5/45  1- 2  1- 3  0- 0  5/38  0/33  1/39  0/40  2/17  1/23  5/18   4 1.00
Westbrook, Lawrence    25:03  -10   8/31  2- 5  0- 1  4- 4  6/29  2/23  1/38  3/38  0/21  2/19  2/18   3 1.01
Nolen, Al              23:22  - 2   0/32  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/31  3/29  1/36  2/35  0/16  1/21  1/20   2 0.00
Tollackson, Spencer    11:43  - 3   0/15  0- 2  0- 0  0- 0  2/10  0/ 8  0/18  0/19  0/14  0/ 6  1/11   1 0.00
Hoffarber, Blake       11:31  - 5   0/23  0- 0  0- 3  0- 0  3/18  0/15  0/19  0/18  0/ 6  1/11  1/ 4   0 0.00
Abu-Shamala, Jamal     10:16  - 4   0/ 8  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 7  0/ 7  1/16  2/16  0/13  0/ 5  1/13   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00          55 12-30  7-19 10-17    49  7/19  4/62 16/62  5/33 11/32 19/32  20 0.96
                                          .400  .368  .588        .368  .065  .258  .152  .344  .594    

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Bassett, Armon         38:07  +12  11/67  0- 2  3- 9  2- 2 11/50  3/39  0/59  2/59  0/30  0/28  3/30   0 0.92
Ellis, Jamarcus        33:57  +19  10/61  4- 7  0- 0  2- 2  7/50  2/43  4/54  0/54  0/18  5/30  8/24   3 1.26
White, D.J.            33:34  +16  17/61  6-11  1- 1  2- 2 12/47  0/35  3/53  2/52  2/23  2/27  3/24   1 1.31
Gordon, Eric           30:56  + 6  20/53  4- 7  0- 4 12-14 11/37  2/26  1/48  4/50  2/28  1/22  2/27   2 1.13
Stemler, Lance         22:29  + 4   2/33  1- 1  0- 3  0- 0  4/33  1/29  2/35  1/33  0/15  1/20  2/19   3 0.50
Crawford, Jordan       19:41  +10   7/38  1- 3  1- 4  2- 2  7/30  0/23  1/31  0/28  0/13  1/18  1/13   1 0.88
Taber, Kyle            13:05  + 7   2/24  1- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/16  0/15  0/20  0/21  0/12  2/10  1/11   1 2.00
Thomas, DeAndre         5:18    0   0/ 8  0- 1  0- 0  0- 0  1/ 7  0/ 6  0/ 8  0/ 8  0/ 3  0/ 5  1/ 4   1 0.00
White, Mike             1:07  - 2   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 4  0/ 0  0/ 4   0   --
Ahlfeld, Adam           1:07  - 2   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 4  0/ 0  0/ 4   0   --
Finkelmeier, Brett      0:35    0   0/ 0  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00          69 17-33  5-21 20-22    54  8/22 11/62 10/62  4/30 13/32 21/32  12 1.07
                                          .515  .238  .909        .364  .177  .161  .133  .406  .656    

Efficiency: Minnesota 0.887, Indiana 1.113
eFG%: Minnesota 45.9, Indiana 45.4
Substitutions: Minnesota 25, Indiana 26

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Minnesota 1-1, Indiana 1-1
Layups/Tips: Minnesota 7-20, Indiana 9-16
Jumpers: Minnesota 4-9, Indiana 7-16

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.

In Search of Some D

The Golden Gophers come calling at the Assembly Hall (IN version) tonight, and the Hoosiers could use a good performance.  Of course, they could also use a win, but they really need to figure out how to play D under Dakich. After the Michigan St. game, I pointed out that the Hoosiers had posted 2 of their worst 3 defensive performances for the season since Dakich took the helm, and that's something that needs to be corrected for any team that wants to play well in any tournament.

Since this is the second game IU is playing against Minnesota, I'd like to able to look back on the HD box score from the first go-round to get some idea of what might be key in tonight's game. Unfortunately, we don't have an HD box score for that game because Minnesota didn't release the substitution info for it. I made a go at generating that data myself from the game tape, but it didn't quite work out. However, the keys to that game were defense, turnovers (sort of), and free throws.

In the first meeting, the Hoosiers turned it over on 35% of their possessions, by far their worst performance of the season in that regard. The reason that was only sort of a key is that the Hoosiers managed to win 65-60 in spite of those turnovers, which is kind of amazing to me. Still, Indiana played excellent defense against the Gophers, holding them to 0.885 points per possession, their second best defensive effort in conference play (the game at Michigan was their best, at 0.883 PPP). Jordan Crawford was huge in that game, too, posting 16 points while hitting 4 of 6 3's. Even huger for the Hoosiers was Spencer Tollackson of Minnesota, who failed to hit even one free throw in 7 attempts. That vaunted Indiana free throw defense came through for them again (although the rest of the Gophers went 11 for 14 from the line).

Still, if a team with a potent offense like Indiana's can keep its opponents under 1 point per possession, you have to like its chances. And therein lies the rub: can the Hoosiers play any D in the post-Sampson era? Big A over at Inside the Hall suggested that there might be some issues with certain players not being fully on board with Dakich, and I could see that.  In fact, I wondered about it in this space after the Northwestern game. I can't say that I've seen much of that myself, but I haven't done a good job of watching for it, either. Let's hope the East Lansing beat-down served as a wake up call for the whole team.

With their pressing D, the Gophers are second only to Purdue at forcing turnovers in conference games. So expect more pressure tonight. The Hoosiers need to do a better job at keeping their hands on the ball and throwing it to players wearing the same color jerseys tonight. On the plus side for Indiana, Minnesota ranks eighth in the conference in defending two-pointers and defensive free throw rate, as well as tenth in defensive rebounding. Those are areas that IU might be able to exploit, given that the Hoosiers rank second in two point FG%, second in offensive free throw rate, and third in offensive rebounding percentage.

Conversely, Minnesota's offense is very good on the offensive glass and in getting to the free throw line, ranking second and fourth, respectively, in the conference in those categories. But that plays into the hands of the Hoosiers D, which is the best in the conference at defensive rebounding and fourth at keeping opponents off the line.

The numbers appear to favor the Hoosiers. They should also have emotion on their side, too, given that it's Senior Night in Bloomington. Hopefully, the attendant emotion can translate into elevated play for IU. The real questions are whether IU can hold onto the ball and whether the Hoosier D can rebound enough for the Hoosiers to pull out a win.

More Tempo-Free Stats Updates

We've updated the Big Ten tempo-free team stats through this weekend's games, and what a difference they made! On the strength of Purdue's play and the weakness of Indiana's, IU dropped from second to fourth in conference efficiency margin. I think that effect would be somewhat mitigated if we adopted kenpom's approach of averaging the game-by-game efficiency numbers instead of calculating one number based on overall possessions, and maybe we will in the future.  But, for now, this is what we have.  Enjoy.

Not a Lot to Say

I suppose I could just say that the Michigan State game (HD box) was a good, old fashioned hole-stompin' and leave it at that. However, I don't think that would be quite right.  Instead, I will offer a few thoughts.

• I mentioned before the Ohio State game that I thought IU was due for a friction loss with all the upheaval, maybe this game was it. Really, it could have saved the Hoosiers another loss, too, since this one was two losses at a time.
• I didn't think the Hoosiers stood much of a chance before the game, and I didn't even realize it was Senior Day in East Lansing.  Couple that with the Spartans turning the ball over on and excellent (and thus aberrant) 12.5% of their possessions, and this was a perfect storm of ass-kickery for the Hoosiers to encounter in the Breslin Center.
• When GameDay was in Bloomington for round 1 of MSU-IU this year, Jay Bilas kept saying that he thought Michigan State was the best team in the Big Ten, but they weren't playing that way. They were just turning the ball over too much. I was hollering at the TV in our hotel room, arguing that, at some point, you are what you are, and Michigan State was a very talented team that couldn't take care of the ball. Gasaway pointed to it way back in January, and it was a problem for a similarly made up MSU team last year. I felt vindicated that night, when IU cruised to victory on the strength of Sparty TO's on 27.9% of its possessions.  Yesterday, I'm sure Bilas felt a little vindicated, as that was as impressive performance as I've seen this year.
• Of course, a 71.3 eFG% is going to win you most games, given that shooting dominates the other four factors.
• This is the second time in the last three games that Indiana has displayed new levels of futility on the defensive end, both in terms of defensive efficiency and opponent's eFG%. I hope that's indicative of an adjustment process rather than suggestive that Sampson was the key to the team playing acceptable D.
• Maybe we can just write this off as a day where things didn't go right for the Hoosiers, given that they couldn't hit their free throws. On the season, IU players make freebies at a 76.3% clip, 10th best in the country. Against MSU, they hit only 62% of them. Particularly poor was DJ White's 4 for 10 outing, which is most unusual for a 69.5% shooter.
• Speaking of FT's, Indiana's x-factor FT defense failed them, too, allowing MSU to hit 80% of their free ones.
• Finally, I will suggest that, if it doesn't demoralize the team, it doesn't matter a whole lot for IU. It might hurt their potential NCAA seed by a spot, but they have time to resuscitate that in the conference tournament. As far as the conference tournament goes, a win would most likely have led to a 3-way tie for first, which would have given IU the #3 seed due to tie-breakers. If they can right the ship and beat Minnesota at home and Penn State on the road, they'll still be the #3 seed (barring upsets of Purdue and/or Wisconsin).

Indiana vs. Michigan State HD Box Score 3-2-08

Indiana vs Michigan State
03/02/08 2 p.m. at Breslin Center - East Lansing, Mich.

Indiana                 Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Bassett, Armon         39:15  -26  13/74  2- 6  3- 6  0- 0 12/61  6/49  0/68  3/69  0/34  0/40  1/23   1 1.08
White, D.J.            35:43  -30  14/66  5-13  0- 0  4-10 13/53  1/40  1/65  2/64  0/35  3/35  9/23   3 0.79
Gordon, Eric           35:35  -24  22/66  6- 9  1- 5  7- 9 14/55  2/41  2/63  2/63  0/32  2/35  1/24   2 1.20
Ellis, Jamarcus        28:26  -38   5/44  0- 1  1- 3  2- 2  4/38  1/34  2/49  2/50  0/24  2/28  3/14   2 1.01
Crawford, Jordan       26:52  -19  12/53  3- 4  2- 4  0- 0  8/42  0/34  2/50  3/50  0/28  3/27  0/18   3 1.50
Stemler, Lance         17:47  - 2   4/37  2- 2  0- 2  0- 0  4/28  0/24  0/31  0/31  2/14  1/18  1/11   3 1.00
Thomas, DeAndre         8:56  + 8   4/23  2- 4  0- 0  0- 0  4/16  0/12  0/15  2/16  0/10  1/ 7  2/11   1 1.00
Taber, Kyle             3:45  - 8   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 5  0/ 5  0/ 4  0/ 5  0/ 3  0/ 5  0/ 1   2   --
White, Mike             2:18  - 5   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 4  0/ 5  0/ 2  0/ 4   2   --
McGee, Brandon          1:18  - 1   0/ 2  0- 0  0- 2  0- 0  2/ 4  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 1   0 0.00
TOTALS                 40:00          74 20-39  7-22 13-21    61 10/27  7/72 14/71  2/37 15/40 17/26  19 1.04
                                          .513  .318  .619        .370  .097  .197  .054  .375  .654    

Michigan State          Min   +/-   Pts  2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A  FGA    A    Stl    TO   Blk    OR    DR   PF PPWS
Suton, Goran           30:03  +26  17/76  5- 6  1- 1  4- 5  7/47  3/40  4/51  1/50  1/30  1/22  8/27   3 1.81
Neitzel, Drew          29:18  +22  17/74  1- 2  5-11  0- 0 13/47  3/34  2/53  2/51  0/30  0/19  2/27   2 1.31
Lucas, Kalin           28:53  +16  14/74  4- 7  1- 2  3- 4  9/44  7/35  3/52  0/55  0/31  0/20  0/26   1 1.28
Morgan, Raymar         26:03  +27  20/72  5- 7  2- 2  4- 6  9/43  0/34  3/46  2/47  0/23  3/17  3/22   2 1.69
Walton, Travis         23:41  +29   6/69  3- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/38 11/35  0/40  0/40  0/21  1/14  3/27   0 2.00
Naymick, Drew          17:15  +11   2/42  1- 3  0- 0  0- 0  3/22  0/19  0/31  1/32  2/15  0/ 9  2/16   4 0.67
Allen, Chris           15:11  +13  11/41  1- 3  2- 5  3- 3  8/20  2/12  0/24  0/24  1/16  1/ 8  0/18   1 1.17
Gray, Marquise         13:26  - 6   6/30  3- 5  0- 0  0- 0  5/21  1/16  0/25  1/23  0/12  1/11  4/13   3 1.20
Summers, Durrell        9:13  + 4   7/20  1- 1  1- 1  2- 2  2/13  1/11  0/18  2/18  0/ 6  0/ 6  1/ 9   1 2.37
Dahlman, Isaiah         1:50  - 1   3/ 5  0- 0  1- 1  0- 0  1/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 4  0/ 3  0/ 3  0/ 1  1/ 3   1 3.00
Herzog, Tom             1:18  + 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3   0   --
Ibok, Idong             1:18  + 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 3  0/ 2  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3   0   --
Kebler, Mike            1:18  + 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 1  0- 0  1/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3  0/ 2  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 3   0 0.00
Crandell, Jon           1:06  + 1   0/ 3  0- 0  0- 0  0- 0  0/ 1  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 1  0/ 2  0/ 0  0/ 3   0   --
TOTALS                 40:00         103 24-37 13-24 16-20    61 28/37 12/71  9/72  5/39  9/26 25/40  18 1.46
                                          .649  .542  .800        .757  .169  .125  .128  .346  .625    

Efficiency: Indiana 1.042, Michigan State 1.431
eFG%: Indiana 50.0, Michigan State 71.3
Substitutions: Indiana 24, Michigan State 40

2-pt shot selection
Dunks: Indiana 2-3, Michigan State 3-3
Layups/Tips: Indiana 12-23, Michigan State 15-20
Jumpers: Indiana 6-13, Michigan State 6-14

The HD Box Score is something created by Ken Pomeroy, which I've tried to duplicate for my own purposes. kenpom explains the data here. The only thing different here is the Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) column, which John Gasaway (the erstwhile Big Ten Wonk) told me about here.