Report: Vick not playing organized football in Kansas prison

...as opposed to the "organized" football he played for the Falcons.

Article here

S.O.S.

Forgive me for this NFL post during a time where we are all preparing to descend into madness.  March Madness, that is.

The NFL won't announce their schedule until April, but they have already determined the opponents.  Therefore, we can know the 2008 strength of schedule.  It's derived from the win/loss records of the 2007 season.  Of course there is the standard disclaimer that past performance does not guarantee future returns.  However, a few things leap out at me that cannot go unsaid.

Of primary concern (to me) is that the Colts have the second toughest schedule.  Partisan as I am, it seems they always rate in the top 10.  In fact, they had the 5th toughest in 2007.  No doubt that perennial playoff appearances and division titles will do that.  However, in stark contrast, observe the 18-1 Patriots.  They have the easiest schedule.  Ugh.  How can that be?  Thank the AFC East for being so terrible.  Parity?  What parity?

Also, note how awful the AFC West is.  The Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos have the 2nd - 4th easiest schedules, while the Chiefs have the 7th easiest.  Are they really so bad that playing intra-divisional games would dilute their schedule so horribly?  No, but do also note that they play the AFC East this year, so you have two terrible divisions paired together, each dragging the other deeper into futility.  It's very elegant in it's inanity.

I don't think it's much of reach to project the Patriots and Chargers to be the division winners... even 6 months before the season starts.  Further, I'll project them as the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC, respectively.  I don't think it's that much of a reach.  New England had the 3rd toughest schedule in 2007 and finished one game short of perfect.  With the easiest schedule in 2008?  Let's hope they drop one to the Colts, the Chargers, or maybe Pittsburgh, lest we be subject to repeat of last year's breathless gushing by the collective punditry.

San Diego is really the gamble for the #2 seed, but I think an educated bet.  It hinges on the AFC South and the AFC North winners, and how bloodied they when they secure their division titles.  The AFC South occupies 4 of the 8 toughest schedules (2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th) and the AFC North possess 4 of the 9 toughest schedules (1st, 5th, 7th, 9th).  Since both divisions clog the top of the projected toughest schedules, it's not a reach to say they're likely to finish in the #3 and #4 spots for the conference.  I hope I'm wrong.

Purgatory, Tennessee

It was clear to most observers that the Colts were going to sign only one of their free agent guards this offseason.  The consideration was purely economic, and the only question was whether it would be Ryan Lilja or Jake Scott.  Some even suggested that it was a question of whomever signed first, which smacks of hapless ignorance considering Bill Polian's prudence as the Colts President & GM.

Lilja	Scott

The Colts chose Lilja (or, true enough, he signed first, if you must).  Now Scott has landed himself a surprisingly lucrative deal with the Titans.  Scott is certainly a quality player.  He never missed a game due to injury with the Colts, and he showed great versatility in playing multiple positions on the line.  However, I'm not convinced he's a good fit within Tennessee's offensive philosophy (moving target that it is).  While I liked Scott, I think Tennessee overpaid... especially when you consider that he'll be protecting Vince Young, who is decidedly not a pocket-passer.  Perhaps they assign more value to his run blocking, although he'll need to clear bigger holes for fat LenDale White (comically listed at 235 on his NFL.com bio).

However, the bigger question to me is why the Titans are collecting former Colts.  By my count, they signed David Thornton (2006), Ben Hartsock (2006), Gilbert Gardner (2007), Corey Simon (2007), and Nick Harper (2007).  Of those, Thornton and Harper were the only worthwhile signings.  Gardner was horribly disappointing for the Colts and has zero impact, nor playing time with the Titans.  Ben Hartsock was purely mediocre, and didn't last.  He now is with Atlanta.

The most bizarre ex-Colt signing was that of Simon.  Following knee surgery, he had a known, but at the time undisclosed illness (polyarthritis) that was so bad the Colts placed him on the non-football illness/injury list, then terminated his contract after he failed his physical.  Grievances were filed by both parties, and it was pretty clear that Simon's playing days were over... it was just a question of how much money he was owed on his way out.  Tennessee, blinded by his horseshoe, had a different interpretation and promptly signed him.  There he would play 4 games, amass a single tackle (assisted, not solo), and abruptly retire.  It must have been a glorious tackle.

Now that the Colts are preparing to move into their new digs at Lucas Oil Stadium, they're selling off the RCA Dome one seat at a time.  I suspect Jeff Fisher et al are looking to complete their master plan of reconstituting the 2004 Colts... player by player, and perhaps inch by inch.  Looking at the pricing... it will cost them.

Corey Simon & Gilbert Gardner sat here!!!

 

How will this impact the Colts?  No line position is unimportant, but I'd think Howard Mudd would much rather replace the right side than the blind side.  As Deshawn Zombie says:

Howard Mudd will invariably turn some 4th round pick from Fartville State and create a serviceable guard out of him.

How long will that guard play for the Colts before Tennessee signs him, and how much would you like to see him introduce himself on Monday Night Football as hailing from Fartville State?

Statistical Cherry Picking

After I wrote Wes Welker versus Jerry Rice?!?, I found this marvelous rant:

Let's note one particularly stupid thing King writes. King compares Wes Welker's 2007 season with "the most productive season Jerry Rice ever had," which he calls 1995. He then ONLY compares regular season and post-season receptions to show Welker looking comparable to Jerry Rice. He doesn't point out that in 1995, Rice set the NFL RECORD FOR RECEIVING YARDS IN A SEASON with 1,848. In 2007 Welker had 1,175 receiving yards in the regular season, a total Rice topped ELEVEN TIMES! And in '95 Jerry Rice had 15 touchdown receptions in the regular season to Wes Welker's 8--a total Rice topped TWELVE TIMES!

If King wants to show how great Wes Welker is by comparing his best receptions total in a season (in 19 regular and post-season games) to Jerry Rice's best receptions total in a season (in 17 regular and post-season games), he can do so. He is, however, fairly idiotic to simply present only receptions without pointing out that in 1995 Rice had MORE RECEIVING YARDS THAN ANYBODY EVER HAD IN A SINGLE SEASON!, while Welker's 1,175 yards was topped by BY TEN RECEIVERS THIS SEASON! I'm completely appalled by this statistical cherry picking.

Well said, Pacifist Viking!

Imagining the Game that Wasn't

After watching the Super Bowl, it got me thinking that had the Colts traveled to Foxboro for another AFC Championship, the result likely would have been the same as past failures there.  (Perhaps Ty Law would have run out of the stands and picked off Manning as well... just for old times sake.)

With Freeney gone for the season, the Colts had zero pass rush against the Chargers.  It showed in the inability to get the defense off the field on 3rd downs... allowing a conversion rate of 60% with zero sacks.  They managed to make Philip Rivers and Billy Volek look like winners... which they are not.  Without Freeney, Robert Mathis was less effective, and nobody else could gain any pressure.  This deficiency was camouflaged by the weak second half of the season:  KC, @ATL, JAC (the exception), @BAL, @OAK, HOU, TEN.

In the Super Bowl, the Giants were able to get to Brady:  he was sacked a season-high 5 times and knocked down 23 times.  He looked visibly rattled... perhaps the first time I've ever seen him look uncomfortable.

I was surprised by the Patriots blocking difficulty.  I've always considered that line to be the best in the league.  Indeed, they were 5th in sacks allowed, giving up only 21 in the regular season.  It's not an uncommon sight to see Brady standing in the pocket for obscene durations, knowing that nobody will ever touch him, then delivering the ball much later than most QBs can afford.

Supposing Tynes had missed again in the NFC Championship, or that Favre had not thrown such a terrible pickle in OT.  Would Green Bay have been able to pressure Brady enough to win?  I think not.  We'd be subjected to the misery of 19-0 history and the "Greatest of All Time" hype, and we wouldn't be able to deny it.  Thankfully, the only NFC playoff team that had the right tools to beat them, did just that.  And the Colts, would not have.

Here's wishing Freeney Godspeed in his recovery.

Wes Welker versus Jerry Rice?!?

After being away for a few days, I've been catching up on post-Super Bowl articles. The normally on-point Peter King caught my eye (and my ire) with this MMQB article. (scroll to bottom of the page.)

He compares Wes Welker to Jerry Rice in their most productive seasons, defined by total receptions:

On the surface, it is an impressive comparison. 27 post-season receptions for Welker is indeed quite gaudy. He had a brilliant post-season, but it must be said that although Welker is exceedingly troublesome for defenses, he's a possession receiver, not a downfield threat. He's most dangerous over the middle in short distance scenarios. Further, he's the Patriots second receiver and thus receives beneficial match-ups because the primary receiver takes most of the coverage scheme. Defenses don't like it, but they concede underneath yardage to Welker to save downfield yardage to Moss.

I've pulled the stats, including the playoffs for the 2007 Welker, the 1995 Rice, and the 2002 Marvin Harrison -- after all if total receptions is the gold standard, then we must include the record holder for total receptions in a season.

Year	Player	Games	Rec	Playoff Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Long	TD	20+	40+	FUM
2002	Marvin Harrison	17	147	4	1769	12.03	104.1	69	11	22	4	0
1995	Jerry Rice	17	133	11	1965	14.77	115.6	81T	16	26	10	3
2007	Wes Welker	19	139	27	1388	9.99	73.1	42	10	10	1	2

Disclaimer: these stats are compiled from NFL.com and the regular and post-season stats are very accurate. However, historical data for the 1995 Rice playoff game, while accurate, does not give me the numbers for 20+ and 40+ receptions. I know his long that day was 37, so I know the 40+ count is correct. I think the 20+ count is correct.

Indeed Welker dwarfs Rice and Harrison in the post-season, but the 49ers were one and done thanks to the Packers, and the Colts were drubbed by the Jets in their first playoff game. Welker has two additional games, so consider that his 27 receptions in three games isn't a fair comparison to Rice or Harrison. Per game in the post-season, Welker has 9 rec., while Rice has 11.

Then look at the yardage. For being the 2nd receiver, Welker has great yardage at 1388. But both Rice and Harrison are 1st options and thus with coverage aimed their way, they pull in 1965 and 1769 respectively... in two less games. Look at the per game average and tell me which WR you'd rather face:

Um... I'd like to go against the receiver who gains less yards per game. And the per catch average?

It's about what you'd expect for a possession receiver... enough distance to extend a drive. This is where you really take note of the difference between a downfield threat and a possession receiver. It's my contention that with 143 regular season catches, Harrison was more of a possession receiver in 2002 than his norm. The YPC somewhat supports that assertion. He was Manning's safety blanket, much the way that Welker has been for Brady.

Next, let's examine scoring, because yards mean little if you don't score:

Both #1 receivers were very dangerous... especially Rice. Not only did he dominate in yardage, but his scoring average of nearly a TD/game is truly impressive.

So, Welker compares favorably in number of receptions, but falls well short in Yds, Yds/Gm, and TDs/Gm. It's clear to me that Welker is very good, but to suggest that he's on par with Jerry Rice in his best season is folly.

The mess that is the Washington Redskins (or business as usual)...

Growing up in Indiana, I was always indifferent about the Redskins. The Colts and the AFC were of primary interest, while the NFC... not so much. Sure, I'd watch their great rivalry with Dallas and I enjoyed it. Those were always compelling games. And I watched their two Super Bowl wins in the 80's, as well as their third in the early 90's. Throughout all of that, I found that I remained completely disinterested in them. I neither liked nor disliked them.

Then in the late 90's, I moved east to the greater Washington D.C. area. In short time, a hatred was born. We did not have DirecTV and therefore no Sunday Ticket. And so we were subjected to the Redskins every Sunday, a particularly painful prospect when the local market blackout of other games applied. They were terrible that first year I lived there. It was 1998, and they finished a fortunate 6-10.

The games were brutal, but it wasn't the terrible play that turned me against them... after all I'm a Colts fan and I remember how terrible they had been throughout the 80's and much of the 90's. No, it was the local media. They were insufferable. With each loss, they'd bemoan the end of days... truly this must be Armageddon! And with each win, they'd breathlessly gush about playoffs, even if there remained only distant mathematical chances by week 10.

"Surely this team has turned the corner this very week! They just may win out, and get some help!"

Alas, the following week, back to doom and gloom. And so, my list of enemies grew.

Along comes Daniel Snyder in 1999, buying the team with what was then an obscene purchase price of $800 million.

Napolean? No, it's Danny Boy!

That same year, they turned it around and won the NFC East. The glory of the old franchise was restored. He brought immediate buzz (which of course brought the previously unbearable media coverage to a new level of hell that only Dante, Hitler, and perhaps Belichick knew existed.) In 2000, he courts Deion Sanders and a great host of big name, big money busts. Irving Fryar didn't know how prophetic he was:

"We're definitely the "Who's Who' of the NFL now," receiver Irving Fryar said after a morning practice. "We've got a lot of great names who carry a lot of great talent with them. Yeah, on paper, we're the team."

They were the pre-season pick for the Super Bowl, but Brad Johnson was hurt in the second half of the season. They struggled to 7-6, fired Norv Turner, promptly lost their last two games and missed the playoffs.

This is hell...

Along comes Marty Schottenheimer, who takes them to 8-8... and is promptly canned.

I deserved more!!!

Why not add more flux to the franchise? Let's bring in Steve Spurrier... the 'ol ball coach. Spurrier plays his starters longer in the preseaon, runs more complex plays than the typical "show nothing" vanilla you typically see, and runs up the score. Good times. The media suggests this could be a breath of fresh air to the NFL, after all he's an offensive genius. Then the real season starts. The genius takes them to an "offensive" 7-9.

Pure Genius!

How can Snyder restore the Redskins to greatness? Why look back to the glory days, of course! It's working for Al Davis and the Raiders, right? Let's bring back Joe Gibbs. He's a god to Redskins fans. Now, I won't pile on Joe Gibbs. I find him a class act. However, he should have known better to work under a meddling owner. Sadly, for them, he was also a bust.

I miss NASCAR!

And so here we are... looking for a new coach. Synder is keen to get this franchise pointed in the right direction. This is a terrific opportunity to meddle. The team finished strong, was 9-7 overall, and seemed to have really come together in the wake of the tragic slaying of Sean Taylor. Of course there will be some transition after Gibbs goes, but Synder takes this to the extreme.

The natural play would have been to turn it over to Greg Williams, but Snyder botches that hire. We also hear that Pete Carroll had interviewed. Does Snyder not remember the Spurrier Experiment? Jim Mora was a candidate before withdrawing his name. Tennessee Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is a candidate. Jim Fassel interviews twice and is still a candidate. Ron Meeks is coming back for a second interview. Steve Spagnuolo is oft-mentioned as a likely interview. And perhaps Josh McDaniels, the wunderkind of the Patriots, might be a possibility. And for good measure, let's hype a rumor about Bill Cowher being the next head coach.

These would all be fine hires, but for this problem. Snyder has proceed to hire assistant coaches already. Already waiting are newly-hired offensive coordinatior Jim Zorn, newly-hired defensive line coach Larry Brooks, and Greg Blache who was promoted to defensive coordinator. Snyder has effectively handcuffed whatever candidate he hires to work with a staff they've had no voice in hiring. How successful can you be in that situation? Ron Meeks, pass on this. Josh McDaniels, stay with the Patriots and wait for a better opportunity. Follow the lead of Jason Garrett. Your time is not now... not here anyway.

I found this on the Redskins home page. Where are the choices for Owner and Coach?

I feel for Redskins fans. It must be brutal to see the ship sinking and knowing you can't avoid being pulled down with it. And yet, it gives me great glee to see it happen. I'm sorry... but, as always, blame the media!