S.O.S.

Forgive me for this NFL post during a time where we are all preparing to descend into madness.  March Madness, that is.

The NFL won't announce their schedule until April, but they have already determined the opponents.  Therefore, we can know the 2008 strength of schedule.  It's derived from the win/loss records of the 2007 season.  Of course there is the standard disclaimer that past performance does not guarantee future returns.  However, a few things leap out at me that cannot go unsaid.

Of primary concern (to me) is that the Colts have the second toughest schedule.  Partisan as I am, it seems they always rate in the top 10.  In fact, they had the 5th toughest in 2007.  No doubt that perennial playoff appearances and division titles will do that.  However, in stark contrast, observe the 18-1 Patriots.  They have the easiest schedule.  Ugh.  How can that be?  Thank the AFC East for being so terrible.  Parity?  What parity?

Also, note how awful the AFC West is.  The Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos have the 2nd - 4th easiest schedules, while the Chiefs have the 7th easiest.  Are they really so bad that playing intra-divisional games would dilute their schedule so horribly?  No, but do also note that they play the AFC East this year, so you have two terrible divisions paired together, each dragging the other deeper into futility.  It's very elegant in it's inanity.

I don't think it's much of reach to project the Patriots and Chargers to be the division winners... even 6 months before the season starts.  Further, I'll project them as the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC, respectively.  I don't think it's that much of a reach.  New England had the 3rd toughest schedule in 2007 and finished one game short of perfect.  With the easiest schedule in 2008?  Let's hope they drop one to the Colts, the Chargers, or maybe Pittsburgh, lest we be subject to repeat of last year's breathless gushing by the collective punditry.

San Diego is really the gamble for the #2 seed, but I think an educated bet.  It hinges on the AFC South and the AFC North winners, and how bloodied they when they secure their division titles.  The AFC South occupies 4 of the 8 toughest schedules (2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th) and the AFC North possess 4 of the 9 toughest schedules (1st, 5th, 7th, 9th).  Since both divisions clog the top of the projected toughest schedules, it's not a reach to say they're likely to finish in the #3 and #4 spots for the conference.  I hope I'm wrong.

Purgatory, Tennessee

It was clear to most observers that the Colts were going to sign only one of their free agent guards this offseason.  The consideration was purely economic, and the only question was whether it would be Ryan Lilja or Jake Scott.  Some even suggested that it was a question of whomever signed first, which smacks of hapless ignorance considering Bill Polian's prudence as the Colts President & GM.

Lilja	Scott

The Colts chose Lilja (or, true enough, he signed first, if you must).  Now Scott has landed himself a surprisingly lucrative deal with the Titans.  Scott is certainly a quality player.  He never missed a game due to injury with the Colts, and he showed great versatility in playing multiple positions on the line.  However, I'm not convinced he's a good fit within Tennessee's offensive philosophy (moving target that it is).  While I liked Scott, I think Tennessee overpaid... especially when you consider that he'll be protecting Vince Young, who is decidedly not a pocket-passer.  Perhaps they assign more value to his run blocking, although he'll need to clear bigger holes for fat LenDale White (comically listed at 235 on his NFL.com bio).

However, the bigger question to me is why the Titans are collecting former Colts.  By my count, they signed David Thornton (2006), Ben Hartsock (2006), Gilbert Gardner (2007), Corey Simon (2007), and Nick Harper (2007).  Of those, Thornton and Harper were the only worthwhile signings.  Gardner was horribly disappointing for the Colts and has zero impact, nor playing time with the Titans.  Ben Hartsock was purely mediocre, and didn't last.  He now is with Atlanta.

The most bizarre ex-Colt signing was that of Simon.  Following knee surgery, he had a known, but at the time undisclosed illness (polyarthritis) that was so bad the Colts placed him on the non-football illness/injury list, then terminated his contract after he failed his physical.  Grievances were filed by both parties, and it was pretty clear that Simon's playing days were over... it was just a question of how much money he was owed on his way out.  Tennessee, blinded by his horseshoe, had a different interpretation and promptly signed him.  There he would play 4 games, amass a single tackle (assisted, not solo), and abruptly retire.  It must have been a glorious tackle.

Now that the Colts are preparing to move into their new digs at Lucas Oil Stadium, they're selling off the RCA Dome one seat at a time.  I suspect Jeff Fisher et al are looking to complete their master plan of reconstituting the 2004 Colts... player by player, and perhaps inch by inch.  Looking at the pricing... it will cost them.

Corey Simon & Gilbert Gardner sat here!!!

 

How will this impact the Colts?  No line position is unimportant, but I'd think Howard Mudd would much rather replace the right side than the blind side.  As Deshawn Zombie says:

Howard Mudd will invariably turn some 4th round pick from Fartville State and create a serviceable guard out of him.

How long will that guard play for the Colts before Tennessee signs him, and how much would you like to see him introduce himself on Monday Night Football as hailing from Fartville State?