Monday, November 24, 2008

Point Taken?

I don't know what we really know about the Hoosiers after their first two games, other than that they will undoubtedly be a constantly-evolving and likely-improving team over the course of the season. The one thing that's interesting to me after the first two games is the point guard play. Verdell Jones, III has been the starter for both games, and he seems to have flashes of brilliance, and a lot of potential upside (as Hubie Brown might say). He has been occasionally spelled by a short, scrappy walk-on from Carmel High School: Daniel Moore. What's interesting is how the team has played with them both on and off the floor. Here are team efficiency numbers with both of them on and off the floor in the Bemidji State game.

  Min OEff on floor OEff off
floor
DEff on
floor
DEff off
floor
Jones 25:22 100.0 103.4 83.7 60.0
Moore 18:14 100.0 102.7 69.4 78.4

 

And here are the numbers for the IUPUI game

  Min OEff on floor OEff off
floor
DEff on
floor
DEff off
floor
Jones 17:30 48.3 143.8 110.0 75.0
Moore 23:40 150.0 41.4 78.8 106.9

 

Again, it's probably too early to try to make any sweeping conclusions. However, in the first game, neither player's presence on the floor seemed to help the O, but the team did play better D while Moore was on the floor and worse when Jones was out there. The results were drastic against IUPUI, when Moore's presence coincided with greatly improved offensive and defensive efficiency, while Jones's PT coincided with poor team performance on both ends of the floor. We definitely can't attribute the team's play to the presence or absence of either player, but it is something I find interesting to look at. It will be even more interesting to see what happens as we move forward throughout the course of the season. Of course, the point may be moot, since I don't know the status Jones's ankle injury.

Speaking of moving forward, I don't think it matters who the Hoosiers trot out against Notre Dame this evening. As John Gasaway points out, the Irish are comprised of a scoring machine of staggering efficiency in Luke Harangody, surrounded by a bunch of guys who do little other than shoot -- and make -- 3's when the defense focuses on the big man. I'm not really sure what IU's approach will be. You don't want to play zone and sag in on Harangody because the perimeter guys will light you up. On the other hand, you Harangody will destroy the smallish and youngish Hoosier frontcourt if they try to play him straight up. The Hoosiers lack of rebounding chops is so much gasoline on the fire. I fear that Tom Pritchard, Kyle Taber, and Tijan Jobe will be hard-pressed to stay on the floor for any appreciable length of time due to foul trouble. All in all, I don't expect IU to have a good chance against what is a superior team on paper (or in this blog, anyway). But, as Kenny Mayne says, they don't play games on paper; they play them in TV sets. So let's see what happens.

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